2010-02-26 still trading.

weekly review and monthly review.

I'm done for the week and the month. Today there is some interesting market movement, we yoyoed in fx market, E/U end up at 1.3540/50 level.

Weekly number:
2/21/2010 8
2/22/2010 9
2/23/2010 38
2/24/2010 0
2/25/2010 -6

Total of 49 pips. And I reached my monthly goal as well, that's why I call it for the month. Starting next month, I will be increasing my size and max risk will also be increased.

By looking at my jornal, the biggest problem is my rule breaking trade, if all the worst case happened, I will be -800 pips in the past 4 months. There need to be some review and plan/action in place.

I don't have much time to work on my trading, I do have time in front of the computer but I feel I'm not focused, my eyes are looking at the screen but not my mind, and I'm losing my sleep because of some bad trade (for example the one on 2/23).

We bot a mini-van, now I'm a complete mid-age family man. :)

I'm having skype account now, it's active when I was trading, I feel it helps to keep connection with couple trading friends (Thanks Alex for bring this up). If the readers want to get connected, please email me your skype ID. Again, I'm trading mainly PST time frame.

Happy weekend everyone... ops, it's NOT Friday yet.


lessons learned this week:
1: in off session, I can wait for the price to reach the s/r line, so have limited order at the line is better than giving up 1 or 2 pips. because it's less chance to true breakout. Also in off session, it moves less and spread wider, 1 or 2 pips makes big deal.

2: following 1 minute ema62 is so easy to trade.

3: rule breaking == failure

2010-02-25

short at 79 and have another order at 50 if it can break... see how it goes.

2010-02-24 no trade.

not interesting in buy/sell... sideline.

2010-02-23 another day of RB

The day started OK, I was up 6:20 and waiting for US stock market to open, got some target hit and stop loss, all normal. First trade was on case shiller house news, market sold off a little and bounced back, I shorted. and stopped out then short again, I was able to get 1R for 1/2 size and let the rest run... It turns out to be profit, I was up +5 or so.

Then there was the suden drop and i shorted with 3x size, got stopped out, after that, it's bigger and bigger size. I was once down -130 pips and I called additional support, moving money from reserve account and use bigger leverage for trading. at the worst point, I was down -130 in my account and if I got stop out, that's another 80 pips... so total risking -210 trade.

End up it worked out, if I hold all the position till now, I will be +230. so it's actually -210 vs +230.

The thing is, I taking profit on the way up so I end up with only +50. I was running at highest 7.5 x size, I was scared.


I'm trading with 1/2 capital and 1/2 reserve, in couple days/cases, I use the reserve in my trading.. next month I plan to increase the size, that means no reserve and no average in because of less capital... meaning more rule breaking == failure in the whole account.

2010-02-22 will short work?

And I long later on.

weekly review

2/15/2010 2
2/16/2010 36
2/17/2010 15
2/18/2010 36
2/19/2010 6

Total of 95 pips, not bad. The bad part is, I had 2 days of rule breaking, each of them result in 36 pips profit.
here is the thing, on the first one, I agree it's a totally rule breaking, because I moved my stop and average in, so it had -200 risk at one point, and I end up getting 10 or 20 pips in profit. This case need to be avoid next time.

The 2nd one, I was actually keeping my stop in place, so I get maybe 10 or 15 stops, that end up of -110 pips at the biggest, then I traded with much larger size (3.5x), and end up with 10 or 20 pips result. See, I don't have a daily trading limit, not a hard one, I use to set a 100 or 70 loss limit, but if I reach that point, I won't stop but keep on going, untill the market close or the active session is over. Is this really wrong? I mean I didn't move my stop and I'm just keep trading, it's like I lost continuesly in couple days.

I guess I was still wrong, with -110 pips in mind, I couldn't make the right decision, that I tend to take profit at my BE point, which happened in both days.


Goal for next week:
1: write a plan and follow the plan.
2: Take profit at 1R and let the rest run.
3: follow the trend in breakout and short the bounce or buy the dip.

lessons learned this week:
follow the trend is better.
Get out when you are wrong. Follow the trend is not easy after it stalls for a while. Market goes up in spike and range in turns.. When it's in range, it's better to buy low and sell high, in spike, it's better to follow the trend and buy pullback and short pop up.
again, follow the trend is better.
keep stop in place is the key, also as part of the plan.

2010-02-19 half size scalp.

Acutally I was trading with half size since 4 months ago, it's just I can buy 2 or 3 times because I always wrong on the first entry.

Today it works on first try, now I regret that I need to to full size. :)

It goes up another 10 pips while I'm typing this.

Fed raise discount rate by 25 bp.

At 1:30 PST, Fed raised discount rate by 25 bp, eur/usd dropped from 1.3610 to 1.3490 in couple minutes.. I was late but able to catch some profit.

2010-02-18 another rule breaking?

EUR/USD tested 1.3550 and bounce back to 1.3650 in a matter of 60 minutes. I was shorting all the 60 minutes. Thanks god it ended finally.

And again, I don't have a winner left to run.. I was down at biggest of -110, end up with +10 I think.

And if I had all my winners run, it would be +130... I don't know what to say. No more trading need more time to review what happened and how can I do better in this case.






I'm really done for today, I promise.

2010-02-17 still buying, why?

Another side note is, I'm already reaching my weekly target for this week (50 pips), but I'm still behind for my monthly goal, I am debating if I should
1:continue trade with the current size or
2:trade with half of the size because I don't want to give back my profit.
3:trade with 2x of the size because I have book profit already, it's house money anyway.

Please leave your comments and I will consider what to do for Thu and Fri.

2010-02-16 rule breaking again.

picture first, more comments on the way.

This is one of the Rule breaking days.... and it's late night trade as well.. too painful.

SPY

I don't trade stock, but I keep an eye on stock market very closely.
Here is an update on ES (SPY emini future).

2010-02-16 up up up.

Eur/usd is moving up, at the weekend, I told myself, can you follow the trend just once and see how it goes?

I still short the market last night, end up been break even.

And long the eur/usd this morning, luck is on the long side and it breakout. Here is the chart:

weekly review

2/8/2010 11
2/9/2010 10
2/10/2010 11
2/11/2010 16
2/12/2010 0


Total of 48 pips, more important is, I don't have any rule-breaking trade this week.

Lessons learned this week:
1: follow the trend on 1 minute chart, in major breakout. unless it's a key support / resist. when at these level, price need to show some respect.
2: short the bounce, not the breakout. and let the winner run.



Goal for next week:
1: write a plan and follow the plan.
2: Take profit at 1R and let the rest run.
3: follow the trend in breakout and short the bounce or buy the dip.

2010-02-12 no trade

I have order at 43 level, but didn't get filled.

Also kind of busy this morning so didn't take any other aggresive position...

Have a good weekend.

2010-02-11 down trend continues.

It's a down trend clearly, ES had some gain overnight but was 0 at the moment stock market open.

similar to EUR/USD.

hourly resist 1.3800, support 1.3650 1.3580,

down trend, short it unless big reversal take me out 3 times..

2010-02-10 Bernake's testimony

Ben release his testimony this morning at 7:00. Market sold off after that.

Here is the note I had before 7:00:


hourly support 1.3700 level, resist 1.3810 level.
15 minutes resist 1.3760 level.

down trend... short

resist 1.3810 1.3760 1.3750
support 1.3723 1.3700

News coming at 7:00 AM 10 more minutes

short at resist or 1 minute ema62, or 10 second ema62 if it break down.


Now here is the chart, base on the chart, I should only short at 1.3725 level, which is exactly where I got stopped out... LOL

2010-02-09 cut loser short and let the winner run.

E/U goes up over night just because Trichet left meeting one day earlier. Well market is expecting he can have some super power to save Greece.

I was with the market, keep buying stop out and buying.

no big runner, just couple pips here and there.


At about 8:30 PST, it jumps from 1.3600 to 1.3630 in less than 2 minutes. I was changing my son's pupu and wash his little but. I missed the entire rally from low to high about 110 pips. Could have get 40 to 50 out from it.

Now what I do? I short it with half of the size.. now profit some and let the rest run.










Close my software now, end up with 10 pips maybe? well, not where I wanted but I will take it.

2010-02-08

I had some order to short at 1.3619 level last night and didn't get triggered.

I also had some order at 1.3715 level this morning, and didn't get triggered.

Well, protect your trading capital is most important than anything else.

weekly review

2/1/2010 4
2/2/2010 15
2/3/2010 23
2/4/2010 -4
2/5/2010 108


Total of 146 pips. Not a bad week, the key this week is to cut losers and let the winner run.

As of my goals for this week:

1: write a plan and follow the plan.
2: Take profit at 1R and let the rest run.


what can I do better for this week:
take half of the position off at 1 R , or at least at ema62.
follow the plan, short at 1.3960 level. to avoid the first couple short.
wait for ema62 to enter the second long.
what for the bounce after breakout, and then short or long with the breakout direction.
don't chase price.
don't trade off session.
Plan better for NFP, I did have a plan but didn't write it down. Also need to include the size in plan, was little lost when I enter the order as I don't know how much should I short..

The little boy is still sick, my trading will be limited next week.

Good luck everyone.

Summary and goal for next week:

1: write a plan and follow the plan.
2: Take profit at 1R and let the rest run, or take half at EMA62. It lower the risk.
3: don't chase the breakout, plan for the bounce play.
4: Plan for news trade including size at what price.

2010-02-05 NFP

We lost 20K jobs, but rate is at 9.7%... drop from 10.0% previously.. I am not a math guy, I cannot figure out how this number make sense... So what I do? I follow the trend.. Major trend is down, I keep on shorting..




I came back home from ER at 11:50 PM last night, it could have been 7:00 PM since we only received 1 hour treatement, but we waited for 5 hours.

They have the best equipment/hardware in the world, but lack of people that has the skill to use them.

BTW: all the white nurses were standing there chatting while other nurses (black/his/phil) were running around doing the work.

At one point, I was down 50 pips and also have max risk 180 pips. So the worst case, I could end the day with -230 pips.. But from there, I hit a winner with 190 pips. which makes Risk Reward 2.3:1.9... wasn't as good as on paper, but if I held on all my position, it should be 230 VS 300. I don't have any probelm to take profit as it reaching my targets, as it lonwers my risk.

What can I do better:

Plan better for NFP, I did have a plan but didn't write it down. Also need to include the size in plan, was little lost when I enter the order as I don't know how much should I short..

Trust me, I had a strong feeling to short another additional 4x at the price of 1.3740, but I looked at my current size, it's already 3x. I stopped and told myself it's too risky.. Now I'm not regretting at all even I missed another potenssial 400 pip profit. I tell myself, u saved yourself another 240 pips of risk.

2010-02-04

EUR/USD drop below 1.3780 and SPY drop 30 points.. It feels good that I moved my 401k to lower risky asset later part last year.

The little boy continue sick, and I don't have time for trading today.

Good luck everyone.

Got a little time, short at 1.3764 stop at 1.3774.




Had another trade at 13:00 PST, chasing the price and off session.

what can I do better:
1: don't chase price.
2: don't trade off session.

2010-02-03

Kid got sick after the regular checkup yesterday, not sure if it's from the shot they gave him or he picked up from the playground we went last night, anyway, he crys for attention this morning and he has higher priority.

As of trading, I picked up some trades at 1.3900 to 1.3905 bounce, and sold at 1.3910 to 1.3915 level... Happy to see now it's trading below 1.3900.. I may buy some more at 1.3880 level.


As I mentioned, my son had fever last night, he was fine this morning, At noon, he was 102, we make appointment with doctor at 1:45 pm , we were there on time, but he was shaking and turn blue on skin color. Temperature is 104.7, we bot medicine and doctor asked to use ice on him.

He was fine 1.5 hours later and we went home, he is now playing with his toy..
I was scared...

Doctor just called to check if he is fine, and he is still in office and working. I'm moved.

what I can do better:
wait for the bounce after breakout, and then short or long with the breakout direction.

2010-02-02 let the winner run is so hard.

EUR/USD continue choppy all the way, it's moving between 1.3930 to 1.3965 for couple hours, I planned my trade to short at 1.3960 level and long at 1.3910 level.
And my max lost for today will be -70 pips.

still holding my last position.. now it's BE, but I want more..

what I can do better:
1: follow the play, short at 1.3960 level. to avoid the first couple short.
2: wait for ema62 to enter the second long.

overreading?

From Google reader:
" From your 74 subscriptions, over the last 30 days you read 1,447 items, starred 7 items, shared 0 items, and emailed 0 items."

There are more of items that I just look at the abstract and mark them as READ. They donot count into the 1447 items.

I think I read too much, and need to spend more time on writing/thinking about my own trade. 2 weeks ago, I started to write on what I can do better, that triggers the list of my goals. Now I have the following 2:

1: write a plan and follow the plan.
2: Take profit at 1R and let the rest run.

And trader32 added the 3rd one for me:

3: limit your lost at -70 level so easier to recover.

As for today's trading, I was able to follow the plan, which short at 30 to 35 level, and take some profit at 1R.

1 of my fish die and there are only 3 left...

I had 9 last year.

2009/02/01

No trade today, have to wait in line to submit registration form for my son, and he is going to Kindergarden this September..

1: daily is way way way oversold.
2: hourly is bouncing back from the support 1.3850 level, now still below ema62 line, which is pushing the price down throughout this down trend.
3: 15 minutes is just turning higher and higher, wee can see 5 is above 13 and above ema62.

support 1.3850, 1.3875, 1.3890
resist: 1.3935, 1.3980

Idea1: Short at 1.3930 to 35 level, but short term trend is up, it's hard to fight with it, will see how it behave at that level.
Idea2: buying at support level, the problem is, enven though it's a oversolde market, the sideway consolidation isn't long enough.

I will be sideline and see if the price can get to 1.3935 and 1.3860 level.

choppy session, I'm -2 pips.

What happened was lots more than -2 pips. I was winning on the first trade and I took half at 1R, then didn't ove the stop to BE, so when I stopped out, I was BE (not with 1/2R profit), then the next trade was little tough, I was ready for about -20 to -30 lost if it break through, but it didn't so I was able to get back most of my losses, and I hang on with my winner for about 18 pips at one moment. And then I decided to let it run, move stop to BE as it's about 2x of the size. After that was stopped out, I end up with flat...

at night, there was AUD rate suprise, and I traded another EUR/USD pop.

What I can do better today:

take half of the position off at 1 R , or at least at ema62.