2010-09-17 -230 pips

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly flat 15minute down 5 down, 1.3030 is ema62 of 1 hour chart.
2: News to come is: just came usd cpi, match exp.6:55 U Mich.exp 70.
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? no change overnight, it push up to 1.3160 then the middle east selling push it to 1.3040 level, now we bounce back to 1.3060 level. meanwhile, sds drop to 30.29, crap, my average price is 30.8. I will be out if it breaks 30 and stays under.

4: What do you think the market will do today? dropping.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? short pop
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3


1: keep leverage low is helping. I have 2 acount, they are pretty much same size, acc1 is 50:1 and acc2 is 1:1, which is just my reserve, so I trade feels like 50:1, but it's really just 25:1 overall size, this helped today other wize I will be all in at the middle of tilt anyway. BTW: this change happened after the JPY trade. Since I break even for the year, I decided to lower my risk.

2: today wasn't down that much, the break to 1.3040 level was pretty fast, but it didn't stay there, my strength is to short the pop in a down trend, it's different this time, it's bouncing from 40 and never stays below it. Then it form an up trend all the way to 96. There is no point short (or even trading) when I was -60 pip.

3: I traded UMich also, and have 50 pips in pocket for a moment but didn't take it. And I moved my stop to BE and it was taken out on the 2nd bounce of the down trend. As I always do, this should be changed, because I was down -200 + pips, doesn't mean I can get it back in 1 shot. I always try to do this, that's cause my TILT. If I stop trading for the day, my mind will get reset in couple days, and then I will be trading from my new account size as a base. I think lossing is not a good thing, but learn from losing is good. As I had tilted so many times, today I realize that what cause my tilt and how do I avoid more. Sometimes strick rule helped as well. Like today, I have a 300 pips max loss, that's why I stopped at 230. ANother note is, when I was down 100 pips, and I asked myself, do you want to risk another 100 pips or do you want to stop here today, sure I risk another one, this is not the right choice as I was doing it purely against the current trend, even the trend is about to change any moment, it's not the point of this trade, it's the point about this strategy and this mind TILT. And also the risk control, lossing 100 pips is not a big deal, but losing 300 pips is, how to loss 100 pips is also important as if I lost in multiple trade with right stragegy, it's much better than lost it in TILT.


BTW: I thought of ALL-IN at 1.3090 as well, it would be +500 pips now...

2010-09-14 -1000 pips and + 1000 pips.

I had a rollercoster day today and yesterday.
First I lost about 1000 pips (yes, 1K pips) on buying eur/usd, I was stopped out at the low 1.2660. And missed a 300 pips run, I was trading with 10x + size.

Then I long usd/jpy, finally got lucky which BOJ act, I got all the lost back and break even for the YEAR!

This lucky trade (no mistake, it's purely lucky trade) deserve a drink. I'm having it now...






I was at the swimming class (for my son) when BOJ act, I was watching it jump up pip by pip and I said to myself, finally something happened. Too bad, I had already all-in, and there is no money left on the table to buy. Well, I had changed my leverage from 50:1 to 30:1 due to previous big lost, now I was hoping I didn't do that, oh well, I also hope I didn't have a stop at 1.2660 for EUR/USD... well, stop can only save you right?

2010-09-09

1: daily is flat 3hourly down, ema62 1.2765 hourly down, 1.2765 of yesterday's ema62 15minute up 5 up
2: News to come is: n/a
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? selling first to 1.2670 level, and then BIS and Asian buying to 1.2770 level, now drop back to 1.2745 level.

4: What do you think the market will do today? going up.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying dip
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

Big tilt today, lost about 20% of my account, there are couple good things first:
1: didn't trade acount to 0.
2: didn't get margin call.
3: draw down 20%, better than last time (in May, 80%), it's totally different story when talking about recovery from 20% vs. 80% down.

Bad things now:
1: 20% down is a big mentally hit. I really mean BIG.
2: I just came back to almost (5 to 6%) BE for the year, this add on to the hit.
3: I made the same type of mistake vs. May's tilt.
4: I even lost on the same direction, long!
5: The sign was pretty clear this week, I tilt pretty much all the days.

2010-03-18 hudge down, take some days off.

-250 pips today, will take some day off to regroup.

2010-03-05 plan for NFP trade.

1: trade half sized.
2: wait until Oanda get spread to 1 or 0.9.
3: follow the 5 minute and 1 minute trend.
4: buy pullback and short pop.

Good luck.

Result1: I traded too early, when spread is 1.5. my limit order is hard to fill and market order got filled at terrible price.. until 6:05, it was 0.9 pip spread, that's 35 minutes after the news...


end the day with flat.... +2 pips.. what if... :)

2010-03-01 first trade of March and let the profit run.

Took about half at 82, rest is running, targetting 3520.





Closed at 05, previous low could be resist.




Price is dropping to 1.3512 level, I'm still holding my 0.25 size short, target 1.3470 level.

2010-02-23 another day of RB

The day started OK, I was up 6:20 and waiting for US stock market to open, got some target hit and stop loss, all normal. First trade was on case shiller house news, market sold off a little and bounced back, I shorted. and stopped out then short again, I was able to get 1R for 1/2 size and let the rest run... It turns out to be profit, I was up +5 or so.

Then there was the suden drop and i shorted with 3x size, got stopped out, after that, it's bigger and bigger size. I was once down -130 pips and I called additional support, moving money from reserve account and use bigger leverage for trading. at the worst point, I was down -130 in my account and if I got stop out, that's another 80 pips... so total risking -210 trade.

End up it worked out, if I hold all the position till now, I will be +230. so it's actually -210 vs +230.

The thing is, I taking profit on the way up so I end up with only +50. I was running at highest 7.5 x size, I was scared.


I'm trading with 1/2 capital and 1/2 reserve, in couple days/cases, I use the reserve in my trading.. next month I plan to increase the size, that means no reserve and no average in because of less capital... meaning more rule breaking == failure in the whole account.

2010-02-18 another rule breaking?

EUR/USD tested 1.3550 and bounce back to 1.3650 in a matter of 60 minutes. I was shorting all the 60 minutes. Thanks god it ended finally.

And again, I don't have a winner left to run.. I was down at biggest of -110, end up with +10 I think.

And if I had all my winners run, it would be +130... I don't know what to say. No more trading need more time to review what happened and how can I do better in this case.






I'm really done for today, I promise.

2010-02-16 rule breaking again.

picture first, more comments on the way.

This is one of the Rule breaking days.... and it's late night trade as well.. too painful.

2010-01-27 FOMC and rollercoster day.

It's a long story.

The trade started before 2010-01-26, which I was doing a range trading at then end of US session of 01-25, I was I think break even or had little unrealized gain. Then I decided to hold on the winner and let it run, but didn't move stop to BE. Which is because I had some cases I was stopped out because moved to BE and missed bigger profit.

This is still fine.

Couple hours later, I was stopped out, then I reentered with bigger size, and stopped out, then again and again. by the time I have to stop, I was down -80 pips. I was shorting.

Later one that night, I realized 10 minutes after I was stopped out, Chinese bank news hit the wire and market dropped 100 pips in 1 hour, which I could be part of it if I wasn't stopped out. So I went reverse, buying the drop. That end up for me lost another -120 pips, and holding a 3.5X position over night. At the night I was using my iphone to check the price every couple hour ( I wasn't sleep well ), at one point I was making about 120 pips in this trade, but I want all of my loss back so didn't close it.

Now it's 1/26, it's range and sliding down, against me, I dind't do much wait until the night for some scalp at the previous support level.

Then it's 1/27, long waited FOMC, market was runing away from me before the news and after the news, there is NO suprise, I was able to pick up some at the low and sold part of it at high, but didn't help much as my 3.5x was too big (priced at 1.4080 level).

Then there was the president talk, and eur/usd tanked, it went as low as 1.3933 for about 10 seconds, I had another ordere for 3x filled at 1.3960 level. I was at one point down -560 pips for this giant trade.

I end up holding totoal of 11.5 x at average price 1.4015, at 1/27 night, my target was 1.4141, it did get there but I fold before it break 1.4130.

In the middle of the trade, I have to transfer extra cash from my reserved account to this trading account and change the leverage from 30:1 to 50:1 in ordere to just stay in the trade.

Now everything settled and I am able to return the fund to my reserved account and change the leverage back. And today's size is only half until I get more stable result.

None of the trade I mentioned in this topic had a PLAN.

It was so much painful to hold a loser and let it run.

It was so much painful to get up at night and watch the P/L to only find out I'm down another -150 pips.

It was so much painful to check the price or wanting to check the price even when I'm driving or playing with the kid.

I wasn't going to write about this at all, but then I realize I have to documented what I feel and hope I can remember it.

2010-01-17

1: Daily down, EMA62 act as resist and 5 is crossing 13.
3 hour is down on all 3, 5 13 62
hourly down all 3, 15 down all 3, we are at the support level of 1.4334, and it has been tested couple timestoday.
5 is down as well, no EMA62 yet due to the market just open.

I will short when it's breaking down 1.4335, I have short limit order at 1.4332, stop at 1.4339 and target 1.4322

Current spread is 1.5.

in 1 minute chart, EMA is steady down, I can short of that as well.

Resist at : 1.4350, 1.4355, 1.4375, 1.4400
Support at 1.4300 and 1.4265.

I short half at 1.4339, stop with 10 pip, target 1.4300 level.


-147, don't want to write about it now.

Market open with Gap low and tested previous low at 1.4335 level and chop all the way up. I had a plan to short the breakout on 1.4335, and it was never triggered, then I start betting on the short side, that cause the hudge lost.

What can I do better:

1: I have a plan, need to follow it.

2: I need to really not to trade on off session, when it's not breakout. I had some order short at 32 level, never get triggered.

2010-01-15

1: wasn't going to trade the off session, but when the news hit, still traded. Didn't follow the major trend.

2: didn't write trade plan before the trade.


if I were able follow the rules, 1, didn't trade last night, as even I know the news for rumar of officer resign and later on dismissed, and then ECB talk about not bailout greece. Then this morning around 6 to 7 AM, with the bad CPI number and not so good stock market (JPM and INTC not able to lift it), I would go short. If I were able to get some entry at 00 level, it would be 20 to 30 pips, the key is, after such a nice down trend day, there is no way I go long the market without any fundmental change or any sharp reversal on the technical side.

Also what's the difference of the news/suprise (A) in the off hour compare to (B) the one with our session, which is, B is scheduled and I was ready for it, I have my news tools open up and wait for the number, also I predefined trade plan as well as s/r level. A is not scheduled and it totally suprise, unless it moves big way such as 50+ pips, there is no way I can make money from it.


This is probably my worst trade of the week, the worst part is because I get reward on it, makes me to keep this bad trade. I should get punished by this.

Multiple rules are broken.

-137, big lost more detail to come.

1: traded not active session, when spread is 1.7 to 1.9 pips and on 10 seconds chart, there are lots of idle bar.
2: need to have a trading plan in place before the trade and review it after. I normally have one, but when I trade well for couple days, I tend to forget that.

What happen was, in the afternoon, around 4PM, price start dropping to the dailly support, I went long, and it breakdown more, I went long again, without a trading plan, I just keep long and get stop out and long again. With bigger and bigger size. later on it bounced from 1.4480 which is the daily support and then break down it. It bounce on 1.4460 which is the hourly EMA62. but I was already out of money to just watch on the side line.

Lost about -137, what I can do better?
1: don't trade the off session.
2: have a trading plan and follow it.
3: need to follow the short and intermit trend.

2010-01-08 NFP

We are waiting for NFP, 5 more minutes. Normally at this news, prior market trend is useless, it could reverse anytime, also the news could be useless, market could react differently in both direction.
My plan is, follow the trend, buy the pull back and short the pop. Be aware of the resist and support to take profit, don't use them as entry.

support:
1.4265, 1.4250, 1.4217, 1.4000, 1.3800



resist:
1.4600, 1.4500, 1.4483, 1.4446, 1.4400, 1.4380, 1.4340


Update: I'm still alive, but I'm very very very pissed. As I didn't follow my plan and risked about 200 pip at the worst case, only come back with 20 pips gain. This is pure gambling, there are some reason behind it.
1: buying isn't easy in an uptrend, as your order don't get hit, but shorts get filled nicely.
2: Didn't cut my loser, even worse, moved stop!
3: Still trade normal size while the market moves 2 or 3 times faster than normal, I notice the market is tough right after the news, my order got rejected by Oanda couple minutes as it was too busy. I thought only retail traders using Oanda, and pros only use direct line.

Anyway, more chat to come and we will see it better.

+42

2010-01-07

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is still down, 5 below 13 below 62, resist at 1.4458.
3 hour is flat on 62, same resist as daily, support at 1.4380 1.4400, 1.4255
hourly down on all 3, 5 < 13 < 62, same support and resist.
15 is down on all 3, ema62 is at 1.4360
5 is down on 62, resist 1.4340 ema62 and 1.4320, support 1.4300.

2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time. nothing major jobless in 1 minute
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

bad trade, rule breaking. more reviews coming.



+19 today

2009-12-15 finding top.

It took me a while to find top and I bet big on it, it works out fine, but there are couple problems.

1: I don't write my plan before the trade, this becomes a trend now and I cannot control it, the goal of this blog is to help me fix this, at least now I know it and I will try to fix it. You need to know the problem before you fix it right.

2: I made profit but it's not the way I wanted, I remember the fist time I played golf, I swing pretty well on the driving range, Swing well meaning I can hit the ball and the ball did go forward, and it flys. Then an old gentalmen came by and ask me is it where I want the ball to go? I told him no, I actually want it to go much longer and straight. Then he said to me, you need to work on your basics, you need to learn from how to hold the club, position your self, lock wrist, eye on the ball... I did all that, then I hit the ground, not the ball. Ok enough for golf, the point is, I need to be able to do the basics well before I can hit a long short, get consistent hit then go for a home run.

Today's trading, I was up about 6 pips to begin and then all the way down to -140. Then I scored a 200 pips winner, now I'm +60 pips. well, this is fine as long as I keep my size right.
I was plan on lost 20 to 40 pips and win hopefully 30 to 40 and get more winner than loser. And I have been doing this the past weeks. I'm not sure if I can categorize today as rule broken as I always keep my stop in place and I did get stopped out. Then I was able to let my winner run to the previous support line. There are just some places I can do better if I wrote my plan.. Still confused.

2009-11-30 rule breaking on the last day of Nov.

There are 2 times I broke the rule this month, first on 11/10/2009 and second is today 11/30/2009.

Today I didn't follow the route for I defined normally, which should be:

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is up on 62 and flat on 5/13
3 hours down on 5/13 and falt on 62
hourly is down on 5/13 flat 62 and 5 is down crossing 13. support at 1.5000, 1.4830, 1.4960, resist 1.5070 1.5100, 1.5150
15 is down
62 of 5 minutes is at 1.5030
resist: 1.5042, 1.5070, 5090 5100, 5150
support 1.5000, 1.4880, 1.4940, 1.4970, 1.4990, 1.5000, 1.5020, 1.5050
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time. new home sale will be at 7 am, now it's 6. market open in 30 minues.
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

I will short on the resist

which means I should be shorting and only at 1.5040 level, now look at the chart, I was shorting allover the place, which much bigger size. my max risk was at -180 pips. which I turned around at hit a winnder for about +170 pips. That makes the over all today with +54 pips. I won't count this, or maybe I should count it as -180 to just make myself remember it.



So far the reckless trade:
2009-11-10, biggest risk at -240
2009-11-30, biggest risk at -180

reckless trade.

I'm now facing a 240 pips max risk, due to average down on a false breakout at 1.5005 level. I have stop 1.4940 level, it will be about 15% of loss if it get stopped out, well, at least I didn't get a margin call yet.
Currently it's at 4985 level.



Ok, this trade I end up with +80 pips, that's the worst thing you can do, which is getting reward on bad trade, that make you feel like you don't have to follow the rules the strategy that you spend hours and hours to build. This really makes me feel bad.