2009-12-30 break even day.

weekly review and monthly goal.

6 weeks now, the last week was long time ago and I don't even remember what did I trade.

12/13/2009 10
12/14/2009 0
12/15/2009 60
12/16/2009 44
12/17/2009 7 121
12/29/2009 7
12/30/2009 3
12/31/2009 21



Total of 152 pips this week, not bad. Let's revisit the goals:

The goal for this (Dec) month is to keep the current trading size and get use to it, keep the current daily goal, 30 to 40 pips, and with a 5 pips per day average after all.
Plan is to increase the size by the end of this year and go from there.
[The goal is achieved, and I will increase my size from the new year 1/1/2009]

The real goal is to keep away from large percentage drawdown.

Note: I'm little bit lazy recently as I skipped regular route couple times last week. The purpose of writing this blog and keep my ups and downs is to track my trading and use it to fine tune my performance. Also writing down the resist and support every day in the morning helps me to keep a clearn mind throughout the trading session, prevent me from overtrade and revenge trade. Eventhough I'm winning everyday last week, I need to get back on track with my plan and goal.

2009-12-29

as it's a slow session, should be fighting for the entry... I did it right to fight for the exit.. stop was at 30 level, not very good.

2009-12-17 one last trade.

One last trade for the year, I hope. +7 pips.

Goal for 2010

Before write goal for 2010, let's see what I had for 2009.

**********************************************************************
Goals for 2009
Daily 3: Continue with FX planned trading and trade the plan.
[8, I got most of this]
Daily 6: 2 trades or backtest replay everyday.
[10, I got at least 2 trades a day, but not backtest]
Weekly 1: Only go on web surving on weekends
[3, I surved pretty much everyday]
Weekly 2: Review trades on weekends
[10, I think I only skip 1 or 2 weeks]
Monthly 2: Only go to yutobe or similar web site once a Month.
[5, every 2 or 3 days maybe]
Monthly 4: Read a book, ebook or real, every month.
[3,as I only read through March, well I ready tons of blog post the whole year, that should count as well!]
Monthly 5: only play poker and Facebook every month.
[5, I give up poker early this year and facebook, it's just 5 to 10 minutes everyday]

1: Trade only on the trend that decided by the list of questions
No Jump in the trade, no 1 minute trade, even you jump, take 10 seconds chart and get a nice entry.
2: Trade only on the hammer like bar, no breakout play.

1 and 2 doesn't matter anymore as the way of trading keep changing through out the year.
3: Honor stop, 20 pips on any given trade, 30 pips per 24 hours.
[3, some big blow up]
4: Document the trade.
[8, most of my trade has a chart and some description about why I trade]
**********************************************************************
Now let's list the goal for 2010
1: daily trade 2 times, or replay the chart 2 times, the bottom line is to keep myself with the market and don't get my hands cold, write trading plan every time!
2: review trade weekly
3: review size monthly, if I can get consistent result, increase the size every 2 month. if my capital drop to the max risk level, lower my size.
4: Blog reading and podcast.

These are the goals I think easy to reach.
Now here is the hard one
5: Fight for the entry and exit, don't always use market order.
6: Book reading and more important with action plan to follow up.
7: rehearse the bad and good scenario before trade. Need more plan on this about how to write it.
8: Backup my trading data monthly.















* Short-term trading means fighting for ticks. That adds up over time. I'm buying bids and selling offers, not lifting offers and hitting bids. When I decide to get out, I battle to get an extra tick from the trade; I don't just bail out. Had the market picked up volume and volatility, however, I would have been more likely to bail. Tactics are relative to market conditions;
I have revisit my entry for this month, it works most of the time if I can let the limit order get hit other than chasing the market order.

2009-12-16 done for now.

I am done for now, thinking of stop trading for the year. Here is something on my plan:
1: review the couple RB trade (Rule Breaking), see what if I follow the rule and what the size I should get, because my trading style does need multiple stop out and bigger size on winner or high R:R trade. So risk control is the key to my game.

2: list plan for next year.

3: read some book during the year end break.

2009-12-16 waiting for FOMC

Today market is waiting for FOMC. While ES is up 4.5

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is down and officially 5 < 13 < 62. 1.4613 is EMA5 sep support at 1.4480
3hour down on all 3, support 1.4504, 1.4511, 1.4535
hourly down on all 3, but 5 is between 13 and 62.resist 1.4584, currently at 1.4545
15 is side way,
resist 1.4665, 1.4685, 1.4775
support 1.4617, 1.4600, 1.4585
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time. nothing major
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

I traded little bit in the morning and got about 22 pips. Now waiting for FOMC, the plan is to
1: follow the 1 minute chart move, short on pop and buy on dip.
2: watch 4500 as support and 4600 as resist, see if they break or not.
3: No trade when Oanda is widing spread to 10 pips.
4: Trade with half size as market move much more.

The goal for today is to follow the plan, even there is loser.








Today total +44 pips.

2009-12-15 finding top.

It took me a while to find top and I bet big on it, it works out fine, but there are couple problems.

1: I don't write my plan before the trade, this becomes a trend now and I cannot control it, the goal of this blog is to help me fix this, at least now I know it and I will try to fix it. You need to know the problem before you fix it right.

2: I made profit but it's not the way I wanted, I remember the fist time I played golf, I swing pretty well on the driving range, Swing well meaning I can hit the ball and the ball did go forward, and it flys. Then an old gentalmen came by and ask me is it where I want the ball to go? I told him no, I actually want it to go much longer and straight. Then he said to me, you need to work on your basics, you need to learn from how to hold the club, position your self, lock wrist, eye on the ball... I did all that, then I hit the ground, not the ball. Ok enough for golf, the point is, I need to be able to do the basics well before I can hit a long short, get consistent hit then go for a home run.

Today's trading, I was up about 6 pips to begin and then all the way down to -140. Then I scored a 200 pips winner, now I'm +60 pips. well, this is fine as long as I keep my size right.
I was plan on lost 20 to 40 pips and win hopefully 30 to 40 and get more winner than loser. And I have been doing this the past weeks. I'm not sure if I can categorize today as rule broken as I always keep my stop in place and I did get stopped out. Then I was able to let my winner run to the previous support line. There are just some places I can do better if I wrote my plan.. Still confused.

2009-12-14 boring market today.

It's boring, and lack of movement, I will be watching it.

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is down on all 3, and 5 dropped below 62. 13 is still above 62.
3 hours down on 62, flat on 5 and 13, 62 is at 1.4775.
hourly down on 62 and up slightly on 5 and 13, 62 is at 1.4679
15 and 5 are choppy.. flat

resist 1.4665, 1.4685, 1.4775
support 1.4617, 1.4600, 1.4585
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time. nothing major
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

I guess people are on vacation or waiting for Wed FOMC meeting..

As it's boring market, I will buying at support and selling at resist,
1.4680 and 1.4620

There is no trade, neither level get hit... 0 pip

2009-12-13 Dubai again?

This time is the good news, and eur/usd moved up after news. Again I didn't write the plan and just start trade, this is very bad habit...

+10 pips.

weekly review and monthly goal.

5 weeks now, and 2 weeks after the thanksgiving weekend, I was trying pretty well this week and previous week:

11/29/2009 5
11/30/2009 0
12/1/2009 20
12/2/2009 0
12/3/2009 6
12/4/2009 41 72
12/7/2009 26
12/8/2009 12
12/9/2009 24
12/10/2009 28
12/11/2009 20 110



The goal for this (Dec) month is to keep the current trading size and get use to it, keep the current daily goal, 30 to 40 pips, and with a 5 pips per day average after all.
Plan is to increase the size by the end of this year and go from there.

The real goal is to keep away from large percentage drawdown.

Note: I'm little bit lazy recently as I skipped regular route couple times last week. The purpose of writing this blog and keep my ups and downs is to track my trading and use it to fine tune my performance. Also writing down the resist and support every day in the morning helps me to keep a clearn mind throughout the trading session, prevent me from overtrade and revenge trade. Eventhough I'm winning everyday last week, I need to get back on track with my plan and goal.

2009-12-11 DOWN trend after retail news.

Retail had a surprising news, which matches with what I feel in the holiday season, people spend much more in the mall and online (I did).

Again didn't do the home work just shorted. It was easy but this habit is not good.

+20 pips today.

2009-12-10 late to the trade.

I was late today and market as no movement anyway, short order at 1.4728 level, and stop at 1.4735.. now looking at target to 1.4720 and next at 1.4700.

Need to do my regular review as well.





+22 today.. biggest risk was at 60 pips..




+6 again, missed another 10 more pips run...
The last short was 3x size, which is because the stop is so close.

2009-12-09 Japan GDP low and Greek concern.

Japan GDP number turns out to be lower than expected and Greek is down graded.

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily down on all 3, and 5 is about to cross 62. support at 4668 and then 4626.
3 hour is down on 62 13, flat on 5, resist 4781 and then 4890
hourly down on 62, choppy at 5/13, 62 is at 4794
15 choppy and 5 choppy, EMA62 is at 4740
current trading at 1.4720 level.

resist 4760 4780, 4860
support 1.4700 4680 and 4660.

2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time. nothing major
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

I will short on 4769 and long at 4700

+24 pips already.






And 4735 is EMA62 on 5 minutes chart, which it acting as resist in this case.

2009-12-08 USD up stock down.

Not much news today, and it's the after shock of Friday's NFP, USD up and stock down.


1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is down on all 3, but 5 ist still above 62, lower than 13 though.support 1.4700 and next 1.4600, ema62 is broken.
3 hour is down on all 3, pretty extended, with the 3rd leg.. resist 1.4890 1.4900 1.4860 ema 5 < 13 <62
hourly down on all 3, after NFP, support 1.4720 and resist 1.4864.
15 down all 3, support 4723/27, resist 4776.
5up on 5 and crossing 13, down 62, ema62 is at 1.4760.

resist 4756 4776, 4830 to 4838, 4860, 4890 4900, 5000,
support 1.4727 1.4723 1.4700 1.4600


2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time.
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

I will short on resist. now looking at 1.4760 level.
I will also long at support, now looking at 1.4720 level.

I longed at 4720 level , took some profit and rest stopped out. then long at 4700 level, stop out, then long at 4680-90 level, now still holding.. I am about -20 pips to + 10 pips today. will see what happens in Asia Sesson.





I did draw the support line this time at 1.4680, which is from 3 hours chart.

+12 pips for today ( I was down 70 pips at one point ).

2009-12-07 will it be USD bottom?

Dollar bounced since last Friday. and stock going up still with in 1105 range.

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is flat on 62 and down on 5/13, 5 is crossing 13.
support at 4756, resist at 5150 level.
3 hour is down on all 3, little extended with the 2nd leg already, support 4756, resist 4900 and 5000
hourly is down on all 3, 5 tested 13 last night. resist maybe 4830 level.
15 is down on 62 and up 5 crossing 13 resist 4830, support 4780, ema5 at 4838
5 is up with 62 at 1.4805

resist: 4830 to 4838, 4900, 5000,
support: 4780, 4756.

2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time.
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

I will short on resist.




I was watching the market when it was testing 4820, and I told myself, hold on to your order until it tested 30/40 level, and then it dropped 30 pips, I said, I'm ok, I followed my plan even I don't have an entry.

Now with it trading at 4800, I regret that I left only 1/5 of position in the winner, but I was only risking 5 to 7 pips in each position, it make sense to take profit at 5 to 10 pips.

Ben is talking again, I trade another round, today total:
+26 pips

2009-12-04 NFP 10%

Well, if I trade the news by all prepared (buy on good news sell on bad news), I will be in deep water this morning. ES is up 20 points while Eur/Usd down 130.

I was late to the trade, got a 10 pips move and now is just managing the risk..




closed most of position, with 30 pips in profit.
Now have the last part target more.



ok, close my last position, total of
41 pips for today...

2009-12-03 not very good trading day.

Here is what happened, I wasn't trading the whole morning yesterday, and sort of feel left out of the market, then during the night session, I started shorting E/U with smaller size, and get stopped out left and right. Then I pick the next pop and short, and stopped out. I put 2 more short order at 5130 and 5140 level, and went to sleep, this morning find out one stopped out and one in profit.

There were couple things that I didn't do right:

1: Don't trade the night session, it's not because of the wide spread or lack of movement, it's because I won't have time to mornitor the market when I'm stopped out. The day session gives me more much buffer to work on it.

2: Again, write plan before trade, I was thinking just to scalp a little bit with smaller size to start, and I will finish quickly. WRONG, it was drag on for 3 hours with bigger and bigger size. Without a plan, I don't really know where to go.

+6 pips

2009-12-02 no trade today.

way to busy today with other thing, no trade.

I did put in order to buy at 1.5033, didn't get fill. now cancel it.

2009-12-01 global market back on track.

ES is up 9 points this morning and Dubai seems to be a OK issue now.

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is up on all 3, support at 4816, resist at 5144
3 hour is up on all 3, little extended, resist at 5102, support at 4970.
hourly is up,
15 is up as well.
5 is up with 62 at 1.5070.

resist: 5102, 5144
support 1.5070, 1.5042 1.5000, 1.4880, 1.4940, 1.4970, 1.4990, 1.5000, 1.5020, 1.5050
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time. ISM and pending home at 7:00 AM
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

wait for the news and buy at support. with 5 to 10 stop, target 10 to 20. If stop out, wait for next support level or pull back on 10 chart.

News is coming out in 15 minutes, I will wait. Remember, short on pop up and buy pull back.

Had some short early the day.




And now is add more position from 5105 to 5115 level, stop at 5120.
Got half of the position out, will keep the rest for a little longer

+16 pips for today, still have a 50% position running, will see where it goes.

Total of +20 pips, the remaining was stopped out at the top.. crap!

What I use to do is to keep it with original stop, even I was stopped out, I will be BE. This time I moved it and missed a 70 pips profit.

2009-11-30 rule breaking on the last day of Nov.

There are 2 times I broke the rule this month, first on 11/10/2009 and second is today 11/30/2009.

Today I didn't follow the route for I defined normally, which should be:

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is up on 62 and flat on 5/13
3 hours down on 5/13 and falt on 62
hourly is down on 5/13 flat 62 and 5 is down crossing 13. support at 1.5000, 1.4830, 1.4960, resist 1.5070 1.5100, 1.5150
15 is down
62 of 5 minutes is at 1.5030
resist: 1.5042, 1.5070, 5090 5100, 5150
support 1.5000, 1.4880, 1.4940, 1.4970, 1.4990, 1.5000, 1.5020, 1.5050
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time. new home sale will be at 7 am, now it's 6. market open in 30 minues.
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

I will short on the resist

which means I should be shorting and only at 1.5040 level, now look at the chart, I was shorting allover the place, which much bigger size. my max risk was at -180 pips. which I turned around at hit a winnder for about +170 pips. That makes the over all today with +54 pips. I won't count this, or maybe I should count it as -180 to just make myself remember it.



So far the reckless trade:
2009-11-10, biggest risk at -240
2009-11-30, biggest risk at -180

2009-11-29 warm up trade.

Kind of lose after the long weekend, here we go back in trading.
All the sudden, Dubai isn't a big deal after UAE central bank decided to stay behind the lenders. EUR/USD raise after the open. Is now tradint at 1.5060 level.


1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is up on 62 and flat on 5/13
3 hours up on 5/13 and falt on 62, just break the resist 1.5050 level in nov 10.
hourly is up on all 3, support at 1.4830, 1.4960, resist 1.5070 1.5100, 1.5150
15 is up
5 is up on 62 and 13, 5 is turning.
62 of 5 minutes is at 1.5030
resist: 1.5070, 5090 5100, 5150
support 1.5050, 1.4880, 1.4940, 1.4970, 1.4990, 1.5000, 1.5020, 1.5050
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time. new home sale will be at 7 am, now it's 6. market open in 30 minues.
3. today's spread:1.3
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

I will short on the close to 70 level.

Had a short at 61, covered most of the position at 56, with 5 pips in pocket, let the rest run or stop out.

It's a warm up trade and it's early in the week, I will stay with 5 pips profit, won't bother me if my last position is stopped out.




I know I took profit little early, as I shorted at 61, my stop is at 72, my target was 51, but I just won't want the 6 pips profit get away. So I closed it, Oanda eat one pip so I have 5.
With light session (Asia) now, 5 pips move isn't small. This is why I don't like to trade light session, the spread is wide (1.3 pip vs. 0.9) and movement is small 5 pips vs 10 pips. The chance we can get profit is small.

+ 5 pips today

How do you get out from a drawdown.

How to get out from a big lost or a serial of small loss? Well, the best way is not to get into one at all. That involve hard discipline and tough mental. I'm not that type of person, so let's face it, there will be huge lost one day, or 10 small cuts in a raw. Let's look at them in detail.

Let's say I have 1000$ account, when I'm down 40$, I don't feel anything, and it's so easy to get it back. When I'm down 400$ after one trade, I feel a lot, the whole world is changing, all the sudden I'm no longer the trading guru and my dream to trading to success becomes nightmare. Well, to get it back, I have to re-group, re-visit my trading skill, re-set my goal and stop level, and my game plan. OK, I have done it many times, what makes it so difficult to come back? Because when you loss 400$, it's 40% of your capital, if you want to get back 400$, it's 66% of the capital because now you only have 600$ in Oanda.

Well, if you can split your capital to be 2 part, 500$ each, and you only trade the 500$ size, meaning your max margin is on 500$, which will limit your size on each trade, but you need to make the same amount of pips when you want to come back from 600$ to 1000$. That makes the comeback much easier. Another way is to split your account with 80/20, that will need you keep a tighter stop. After a big lost, if you just find out that you are not able to trade the same size as before, that feeling is the worst!

The idel case is you trade with 200$ size and with 800$ as your bank, that way you have lots of hands to play and way more time to have fun.


Beginners tend to buying/selling as much as possible and wait for margin call. Pros keep their stop tight and keep trying and trying. There is an old saying cut your loser quick and let your winner run. There are 2 part of it, cut your loser meaning keep you in the game, even you get cut after cut, as long as it's 1 or 2 percent each time, you will always be in the game and have another chance to play. Let your winner run will give you the chance to get bigger profit, which in FX, it could be huge. Look at my trade on 11/25, I left my 40% of normal size and let it run for couple hours, it turns out to be a 30 pips profit in full size. Well, honestly, I was doing that in the previous 2 weeks as well, always have a small position and hope it runs. I was disappointed every single time, this time the payoff is huge.

weekly review and monthly goal.

3 weeks now, the last week was much a surprise to me, I was expecting a lighter move and pretty boring / flat market, but Dubai helped drive down the market. I was able to make 105 pips in 5 days, I did trade on the day before Thanks giving.

11/22/2009 2
11/23/2009 6
11/24/2009 23
11/25/2009 58
11/26/2009 26



The goal for next month is to keep the current trading size and get use to it, keep the current daily goal, 30 to 40 pips, and with a 5 pips per day average after all.
Plan is to increase the size by the end of this year and go from there.

The real goal is to keep away from large percentage drawdown.

2009-11-26 ES down 25

In the morning, it's down 25 now. And EUR/USD is at 1.4970 level. US market closed today, but ES and FX are busy trading..
I will not trade today.

ES is now down 32, seems the whole word is shorting, so I join the crowd as well..

+16 pips



And there is another short later as well, +10 pips.

Total today is +26 pips.

2009-11-25 futures up 7 before open.

Job number below 500k first time in a long time. ES is up 7 points and EUR/USD at 1.5070 level, finally break the 1.5050 resist.

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is up on everything, resist 1.5090
3 hours up on everything, resist 1.5090, support 1.5050 and 1.5000
hourly is up on all 3
15 is up, and 5 is now turning down...
5 is up on 62 and 5/13 is crossing down, big up during eur session at 3 to 4 am, now consolidation.
62 of 5 minutes is at 1.5055
resist: 1.5090
support 1.5065, 1.5050, 1.4880, 1.4940, 1.4970, 1.4990, 1.5000, 1.5020, 1.5050
support: 1.4840, 4800, 1.4750, 4680
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time. new home sale will be at 7 am, now it's 6. market open in 30 minues.
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

will long at different support level. due to thanks giving , it's more likely to range bounce the whole day.

There was a sudden drop at 6am, my reaction wasn't very good...




-40 pips for now..

the rest of trade managed well,
total
+4 pips for today.





EUR/USD break with a 50 pips move above 1.5100. I traded again. with 20 pips gain.

+24 pips today.





Happy thanks giving everyone.


Still hold that short at 1.5140, with size at about 40%. Let it run.

Short another 20% at 87 and close at 75. Here is the chart



Close everything, another 34 pips.

Total today is + 58

2009-11-24 Consumer Confidence up.

News trade today, the mareket was pretty bearish before the news, as ES dropped 6 points since 6:30 open, news is coming out at 7:00.

I had a small short position before the news, and went in with full size after the news.


Now have a trailing stop.


+14 for now.



Short at 1.4970 to 1.4980 level again, with
+9 pip

2009-11-23 mini breakout play.

I use to be a breakout type of trader, cup and handle, NR7, etc.. Now I'm more of a support and resist trader.
Today it was trying to break on the 1.4940 support level, it was dropping pretty fast from 56 to 49 in the pase 15 minutes, so I traded. The key takeaway is, short on the pop, not on the breakout bar.

Here is the chart



+6 pips

2009-11-22 little scalp.

Little scalp when the price moved up. Not in my trading session at all, take about
+2 pip.