2010-11-28

1: What happened today?
It's the holiday weekend, and lots of shopping going on, however, the stores are not giving as much discount as last year so we as consumer didn't shop as much as well. We will wait and see what's happening next in Xmas. Don't get me wrong, I did shop. I got a Kindle for my wife and a nice BB rain coat, but she didn't like it so we returned it.
What's the key resist and support?
Resist is 1.3445 level support is 1.3180 level. There wasn't much news over the weekend, still Europe (Irish/Span/Portigue) will still be the focus as well as north Korea.
What's the trend? Any news?

2010-11-18

Irish taking the aid, eur moves higher, from yesterday, it's up over 100 pips, even though overnight is just 30 pips, market expecting the move from yesterday.

1: daily is flat 3hourly down hourly up 15minute up 5 down, high as 1.3670 support 1.3620 and 1.3580
2: News to come is: 7:00 philly
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? up trend, Irish the driver and job number is not bad as well

4: What do you think the market will do today? moving up.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying the dip
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20

2010-11-17

There was nothing big happen overnigth, eur/usd stays with 1.3520 and 1.3460, range trade with no direction on either side, it's now at 1.3507 as I type.
ES is up 2, which consider unchanged after yesterday's 20 points drop.

1: daily is flat 3hourly down hourly down 15minute flat 5 flat
2: News to come is:no
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? no trend, range trade.

4: What do you think the market will do today? see what happen at either side of range. can be faster move after range break.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? range trade either side.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-11-16

nothing much changed over night, pair sitll bearish, bounce between 1.3580 and 1.3640.

1: daily is flat 3hourly down hourly down 15minute flat 5 flat
2: News to come is:6:00 TIC 6:15 cap 7:00 NAHB
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy?range day

4: What do you think the market will do today?down side.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? short pop
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

weekly review

Monday:
Sunday night was doing alright, buying low and selling high on range trade. made my points.

Monday morning wasn't right, son was waking up 4 and 6, I was late to the screen and saw we goes up, so jump in after a pretty fast pull back with thinking of not to trade the pull back and 3 red bar on 1 minute for 20 pips.. traded anyway with TILT, which risked about 200 pips (with bigger size position) and end up with probably 20 in return... crap, this was exactly the way how I blow off my account last time and I still don't learn.

Monday night was ok, buying the pull back after a breakout. made my points.

Tuesday morning, market dropped another 100 pips, but is out side of my trading time zone, so no worry, I was taking profit too early in general as the market is choppy, could go bigger size and longer hold if I trade after the breakout. Also Oanda is lagging IB little bit.

Wednesday morning, the pair was choppy but moving up, 1.3525 was previous resist, and it was broken, I was able to trade with the trend, but need to buy on the dip of ema62... I was doing ok because of trading with the trend, there were just not much mistake you can make..

Thursday morning, the news was good for SPY but also good for USD, I should have been short, but long instead, painful trading with broken rules to get to BE. I also longed GM which distract me somewhat. Shouldn't trade before the news, first order was right before 7:00. Also the relationship between e/u and SPY is broken today.

TILT on Thursday night, the pair break above 1.3670 and I keep shorting, lost about 2 weeks gain... and also it was too late at night so didn't get up to trade Friday morning... DAMN, I was just learned 2 important points:
1: get up 15 minutes early.
2: prepare the work from previous night.

2010-11-15

TILT today, keep buying at the dip, what if I could short at the pop.

2010-11-14.

Range trade for today.


My view is still down trend, but it doesn't stop me for buying the pair to get 10 pips.

SPY

I had closed my longer term position in SDS, it wasn't that I think the market will go up, actually I think the market will go down more from here 1200 level, to test 1150 and then backup, the problem is SDS is for intraday trade and not meant to be holding longer term. I'm losing 5 to 10% just because of this. As you can see, we are at 25 to 26 level, but we are suppose to at 28 level...

Anyway, I'm out for now, lesson learned.

2010-11-11

CSCO down 10% that drags down NQ 20 points with no suprise. ES is back to 1.3680 level previous support and bounce to 1.37. Which I think it's still bearish but be aware of double dip bottom pattern.

Lots of bank close today no trading and there is no TR I think today as US holiday, so the volume SHOULD be light but with CSCO who knows.

I'm keeping an eye on 1.3680 and 1.3740.

2010-11-10

Today is an interesting day, it reverse in the middle of the trading session, I would lose everything including my underware if I keep on one direction only.
The market was really bearish on Monday and Tuesday, today it was more bearish to begin with and then turned in the middle, I got some short, but nothing flys. It's OK, I was only aiming for 10 to 20 pips anyway, so this saved my ass.

As of the short week, there won't be much trading activities tomorrow and Friday, lets' summarize what happened to me in trading this week.

Monday was a good day, It was bearish on Sunday night and carry over to Monday morning, I was able to short and short, but I didn't let the winner run or follow the market, I was hitting my goal for the day then left. Which means I left more coins on the table.

Tuesday was confusing, which it popped back and I had no idea where to go, so I shorted gold which is at high and got stopped out before it reaching my target. This was stupid.

Wednesday was down and down and reversal all the way back up, I was able to capture some short, see, if I continue to short like what I wished on Tuesday, I would have lose everything again. So it's really hard to tell.

Thursday was a great down market, it dropped from 1.3720 to 1.3660 in my trading hour, but I was expecting a lighter market as US BANK and treatury closed, however, CSCO miss in earning report drag down the entire market which is perfect for short, this IS the time to go all-in. I was pretty protective and only traded 2/3 size... damn it. And I wasn't able to let the winner run, well, it run slower as it IS a holiday. I guess the trading error I have is still the effect from Wednesday.


This is the good datapoint and goal of this blog, to keep track of different days of market movement and my own response to the market.

See you next week.

2010-11-09

BTW: I short gold at 1421/1420, stop 1424, target 1413/1414.

1: daily is up 3hourly down hourly down 15minute up 5 up
2: News to come is:
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy?

4: What do you think the market will do today?

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)
Today is a nice day for the market EUR leading the way of dropping and Yahoo headline is EUR concern drops the stock. I guess after all the news (FOMC NFP) out of the door, now traders are focusing on EUR's debt problem. Gold made an all time hight and fall back to 1390 level. EUR/USD dropped 1.3770 level after testing 1.3960.
I don't have a specific view of where the market will go from here, although I am happy it dropped as I have some longer term position on long EUO and long SDS

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner?
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/
have no idea of where the market is going, ES is also choppy at +3 to -3. Market is tired after last week's big move.

The gold trade was stopped out right at the top, crap. Shorting gold was a mistake as well, as it's at all time hight, I would go long if it's EUR/USD.

The pop today is exactly on 1 hour chart, and then EUR/USD just give the ground for long, keep falling until 1.3750 level..

2010-11-08

It's Monday and it's Daylight Saving time change, trading is a little strange today.


1: daily is up 3hourly down hourly down 15minute down 5 down flat
2: News to come is: N/A
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? down trend move as EU debt concerns more for Irish.

4: What do you think the market will do today? down trending move, see if 1.3900 can be support

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? short the top.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3



After all, I feel I traded too early, I was going to waiting until US market open at 6:30, but when I see the price movement, I lose my patient. Will see.

Trading platform

I am thinking of changing to linux or mac for trading, the PC is good but windows is too slow and unstable.

I'm using Amibroker, which don't have any other version but windows. This is fine as I can have a VM for it.

will do more research need to make sure IB and Oanda work as well.

2010-11-07

It was a pretty silent Aisan session, but all the sedon, EUR/USD is dropping like a rock, I was able to short with the trend.

The drop was pretty big, 30 pips in 20 seconds..

Here is the chart.

FOMC

I'm just trying to get some common sense, FED spend 1.25 TB last year within 12 month to by MBS, and now when it's over, they use the same 1.25 to buy TR.
And this past week, they announce they will use anoter 100B a month for the next 6 month to buy TR, this means from now (Nov 2010) to next 6 month (May 2011), we will have 200B into US TR monthly.
With counting of 20 days (business days) per month, we have 10B perday money printed from thin air by FED.

Just to give a common sense, S (Sprint) AA (Alcoa) are at about 10 to 13 B market cap. So we are creating a Sprint or Alcoa EVERY BUSINESS DAY! And Alcoa have 60K employee, that means we can support 1.2 Million people work every month!

That means we can get 7.2 Mil people work after 6 month if we don't use the money to buy US TR but directly invest in the company!


Update:
OK, after reading more on the news, I was wrong, it's total of 110B per month, including 75B QE II and 30B QE I.

weekly view.

It was a eventful week, we had vote on Tuesday and FOMC on Wed, then NFP on Friday. overall market up nicely. My short SPY position almost get stopped out, I probably will give another 1 or 2 % before I throw towel at it.

As for FX side, this week wasn't bad, I was down 10% last week, and made all back this week, now I'm about 30 to 35% game on my small trading account, will keep it going for the rest of Novemeber and increase size on Dec.

As of view on the market, I think EUR/USD topped and USD/JPY bottomed. If you look at EUR/USD vs. SPY, EUR/USD shows lack of performance. With the issues coming out from EU, such as Irish and Greece, I don't see why they can go up to 1.50 level.
Gold is on fire to 1390 level, if you long gold, it's time to take some profit, you can always jump in next.
That's it for now, nice weekend.

A year ago.

A year ago, 11/6/09, I started this blog. Now I looked back, there were so many things changed.
1: account size
2: The way I trade.
3: The expectation I have about the market and about my own performance.

There are things not changed.

1: still using Oanda.
2: I'm still suck.

2010-11-04

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly up 15minute up 5 up
2: News to come is: 6:30 ECB speak after keep the rate.
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? FOMC to buy 600B, up trend.

4: What do you think the market will do today? depends on how it work at 1.4270, moving up.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buy the dip,short top, be careful about the fast move.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

Lula