2009-11-30 rule breaking on the last day of Nov.

There are 2 times I broke the rule this month, first on 11/10/2009 and second is today 11/30/2009.

Today I didn't follow the route for I defined normally, which should be:

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is up on 62 and flat on 5/13
3 hours down on 5/13 and falt on 62
hourly is down on 5/13 flat 62 and 5 is down crossing 13. support at 1.5000, 1.4830, 1.4960, resist 1.5070 1.5100, 1.5150
15 is down
62 of 5 minutes is at 1.5030
resist: 1.5042, 1.5070, 5090 5100, 5150
support 1.5000, 1.4880, 1.4940, 1.4970, 1.4990, 1.5000, 1.5020, 1.5050
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time. new home sale will be at 7 am, now it's 6. market open in 30 minues.
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

I will short on the resist

which means I should be shorting and only at 1.5040 level, now look at the chart, I was shorting allover the place, which much bigger size. my max risk was at -180 pips. which I turned around at hit a winnder for about +170 pips. That makes the over all today with +54 pips. I won't count this, or maybe I should count it as -180 to just make myself remember it.



So far the reckless trade:
2009-11-10, biggest risk at -240
2009-11-30, biggest risk at -180

2009-11-29 warm up trade.

Kind of lose after the long weekend, here we go back in trading.
All the sudden, Dubai isn't a big deal after UAE central bank decided to stay behind the lenders. EUR/USD raise after the open. Is now tradint at 1.5060 level.


1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is up on 62 and flat on 5/13
3 hours up on 5/13 and falt on 62, just break the resist 1.5050 level in nov 10.
hourly is up on all 3, support at 1.4830, 1.4960, resist 1.5070 1.5100, 1.5150
15 is up
5 is up on 62 and 13, 5 is turning.
62 of 5 minutes is at 1.5030
resist: 1.5070, 5090 5100, 5150
support 1.5050, 1.4880, 1.4940, 1.4970, 1.4990, 1.5000, 1.5020, 1.5050
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time. new home sale will be at 7 am, now it's 6. market open in 30 minues.
3. today's spread:1.3
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

I will short on the close to 70 level.

Had a short at 61, covered most of the position at 56, with 5 pips in pocket, let the rest run or stop out.

It's a warm up trade and it's early in the week, I will stay with 5 pips profit, won't bother me if my last position is stopped out.




I know I took profit little early, as I shorted at 61, my stop is at 72, my target was 51, but I just won't want the 6 pips profit get away. So I closed it, Oanda eat one pip so I have 5.
With light session (Asia) now, 5 pips move isn't small. This is why I don't like to trade light session, the spread is wide (1.3 pip vs. 0.9) and movement is small 5 pips vs 10 pips. The chance we can get profit is small.

+ 5 pips today

How do you get out from a drawdown.

How to get out from a big lost or a serial of small loss? Well, the best way is not to get into one at all. That involve hard discipline and tough mental. I'm not that type of person, so let's face it, there will be huge lost one day, or 10 small cuts in a raw. Let's look at them in detail.

Let's say I have 1000$ account, when I'm down 40$, I don't feel anything, and it's so easy to get it back. When I'm down 400$ after one trade, I feel a lot, the whole world is changing, all the sudden I'm no longer the trading guru and my dream to trading to success becomes nightmare. Well, to get it back, I have to re-group, re-visit my trading skill, re-set my goal and stop level, and my game plan. OK, I have done it many times, what makes it so difficult to come back? Because when you loss 400$, it's 40% of your capital, if you want to get back 400$, it's 66% of the capital because now you only have 600$ in Oanda.

Well, if you can split your capital to be 2 part, 500$ each, and you only trade the 500$ size, meaning your max margin is on 500$, which will limit your size on each trade, but you need to make the same amount of pips when you want to come back from 600$ to 1000$. That makes the comeback much easier. Another way is to split your account with 80/20, that will need you keep a tighter stop. After a big lost, if you just find out that you are not able to trade the same size as before, that feeling is the worst!

The idel case is you trade with 200$ size and with 800$ as your bank, that way you have lots of hands to play and way more time to have fun.


Beginners tend to buying/selling as much as possible and wait for margin call. Pros keep their stop tight and keep trying and trying. There is an old saying cut your loser quick and let your winner run. There are 2 part of it, cut your loser meaning keep you in the game, even you get cut after cut, as long as it's 1 or 2 percent each time, you will always be in the game and have another chance to play. Let your winner run will give you the chance to get bigger profit, which in FX, it could be huge. Look at my trade on 11/25, I left my 40% of normal size and let it run for couple hours, it turns out to be a 30 pips profit in full size. Well, honestly, I was doing that in the previous 2 weeks as well, always have a small position and hope it runs. I was disappointed every single time, this time the payoff is huge.

weekly review and monthly goal.

3 weeks now, the last week was much a surprise to me, I was expecting a lighter move and pretty boring / flat market, but Dubai helped drive down the market. I was able to make 105 pips in 5 days, I did trade on the day before Thanks giving.

11/22/2009 2
11/23/2009 6
11/24/2009 23
11/25/2009 58
11/26/2009 26



The goal for next month is to keep the current trading size and get use to it, keep the current daily goal, 30 to 40 pips, and with a 5 pips per day average after all.
Plan is to increase the size by the end of this year and go from there.

The real goal is to keep away from large percentage drawdown.

2009-11-26 ES down 25

In the morning, it's down 25 now. And EUR/USD is at 1.4970 level. US market closed today, but ES and FX are busy trading..
I will not trade today.

ES is now down 32, seems the whole word is shorting, so I join the crowd as well..

+16 pips



And there is another short later as well, +10 pips.

Total today is +26 pips.

2009-11-25 futures up 7 before open.

Job number below 500k first time in a long time. ES is up 7 points and EUR/USD at 1.5070 level, finally break the 1.5050 resist.

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is up on everything, resist 1.5090
3 hours up on everything, resist 1.5090, support 1.5050 and 1.5000
hourly is up on all 3
15 is up, and 5 is now turning down...
5 is up on 62 and 5/13 is crossing down, big up during eur session at 3 to 4 am, now consolidation.
62 of 5 minutes is at 1.5055
resist: 1.5090
support 1.5065, 1.5050, 1.4880, 1.4940, 1.4970, 1.4990, 1.5000, 1.5020, 1.5050
support: 1.4840, 4800, 1.4750, 4680
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time. new home sale will be at 7 am, now it's 6. market open in 30 minues.
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

will long at different support level. due to thanks giving , it's more likely to range bounce the whole day.

There was a sudden drop at 6am, my reaction wasn't very good...




-40 pips for now..

the rest of trade managed well,
total
+4 pips for today.





EUR/USD break with a 50 pips move above 1.5100. I traded again. with 20 pips gain.

+24 pips today.





Happy thanks giving everyone.


Still hold that short at 1.5140, with size at about 40%. Let it run.

Short another 20% at 87 and close at 75. Here is the chart



Close everything, another 34 pips.

Total today is + 58

2009-11-24 Consumer Confidence up.

News trade today, the mareket was pretty bearish before the news, as ES dropped 6 points since 6:30 open, news is coming out at 7:00.

I had a small short position before the news, and went in with full size after the news.


Now have a trailing stop.


+14 for now.



Short at 1.4970 to 1.4980 level again, with
+9 pip

2009-11-23 mini breakout play.

I use to be a breakout type of trader, cup and handle, NR7, etc.. Now I'm more of a support and resist trader.
Today it was trying to break on the 1.4940 support level, it was dropping pretty fast from 56 to 49 in the pase 15 minutes, so I traded. The key takeaway is, short on the pop, not on the breakout bar.

Here is the chart



+6 pips

2009-11-22 little scalp.

Little scalp when the price moved up. Not in my trading session at all, take about
+2 pip.

2009-11-20 weekly review and monthly goal.

I had started this blog for 2 weeks, there are 11 trading days, and I made total of 50 pips. (I didn't count the +80 on 11/10, which is the reckless trade). Average 5 pips perday.
11/8 15
11/9 0
11/9 -20
11/10 -14
11/11 10
11/12 10
11/13 -24
11/16 40
11/17 10
11/18 6
11/19 11
11/20 6

The goal for the rest of Nov and next month is to keep the current trading size and get use to it, keep the current daily goal, 30 to 40 pips, and with a 5 pips perday average afterall.
Plan is to increase the size by the end of this year and go from there.

The real goal is to keep away from large percentage drawdown.

2009-11-20 Stock market pulls back.

Oil dropped, Dell missed, Trichet talked, Yen advanced. Such a busy morning.

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is up on 62, flat/down on 5/13, support at 4800 and then 4625
3 hourly is down on all 3, support 4800/4750/4680, resist 4935, 5000
hourly down on everything, reisist 4880, support 4840
15 is down on 62, up on 5 flat on 13,
5 is down on 62, up on 5 and 13.

It's a big sell off overnight and now popping back.

resist: 1.4880, 1.4940, 1.4970, 1.4990, 1.5000, 1.5020, 1.5050
support: 1.4840, 4800, 1.4750, 4680
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time.
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

Plan, short on reisist.

+6pips today..




Lessons learned.
1: Always let winner run.
2: Don't revenge trade.

Well, these are really old lessons, I had them on my notes for 20+ times at least... don't know when can I really learn.

2009-11-19 stock market down.

Stock market is down, leading by Tech 1.8% SPY 1.5 and DOW 1.3. Remember, Tech was the one who lift the market in this earning season.

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is up on 62, and flat for 5 and 13. support at 4800
3 hour down on 62, but up on 5 and 13 support at 4850 resist at 4900
houly is up on everything, support 4840, reisist 4990
15 is up on every thing, and 5 is just above 62, see if 13 can go up as well.
5 is up and pretty extended.


resist: 1.4940, 1.4970, 1.4990, 1.5000, 1.5020, 1.5050
support: 1.4900, 1.4880, 1.4840, 4800, 4680
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time.
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

Plan, short on reisist.

It showed some resist at 20 level, Had a short position at 15, now with stop at 20.

Today is
+11 pip

2009-11-18 housing start / permit drop

Housing start/permit drop this month, and which push down eur/usd for 20 (1.4920)pips, which is the 15 minutes 62ema, since then it flys to 1.4980.
I have a bad habbit which I like to open my chart first to see if there is any quick trade on the picture. Today I did that as well, which is about 1/5 of my normal postion.

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is up on 5/13/62. it's still far a way from 62, support at 1.4800
3 hour is up on al 3, and it has been 4 green bars already. look for a resist at 1.5000 level. 1.5000 1.5050 and 1.5020
hourly is up on everything.
15 is up on everything, with support at 1.4940
5 is flat on 5, up on 13 and 62, with 1.4970/62 for 62.


resist: 1.4990, 1.5000, 1.5020, 1.5050
support: 1.4970, 1.4940, 4800, 4680
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time.
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

Plan is long at support level.



It was stopped out. today
+6 pip

2009-11-17 S&P stays above 1100.

I know 1100 for S&P is a key resist for lots of stock trader mentally, once it's break, it's nothing.

Just like the 00 setup or the 000 setup in FX trading, it works sometime, and failed maybe another 50% as well, trading strategy only helps you to find entry/exit for a trade, risk control and money management make you rich or poor.

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is up on 62 and down on 5 and flat with 13, 100 pips away from 62, support at 4800
3 hour is down on all 3.
hourly is dwon on every thing.
15 is down, with reisit at 4900, which is also 62 line.
15 is choppy between 4990 and 4940.
resist: 1.4860, 1.4900. 1.4990, 1.5000
support: 1.4940, 4800, 4680
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time.
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

Plan is: short at 4860 level.


Here is the trade, the last position is on a 10 pips trailing stop.


Today is +10 pip. My trail stop is triggered at 61 level.

When Ben talk, you better listen!

I was stopped 6 times, overall with 20 pips of profit.

I didn't really see what's the news, I was writing my plan and saw EUR/USD dropped sharply, the spread is wide (3 or 4 pips) and I rushed into it, with a preset 10 pip stop on my orders. They are filled at horrible price.




+ 20 today.




Another trade is ongoing.







Done.


The second trade add another 20 pip.
Total today +40 pip

2009-11-16 trying 1.5 with Retail Sales.

Retail sales number is positive this morning, most of it is due to the souring oil price. Seems 80$ oil isn't an issue for most consumer and let everyone else cut their spending so that I can drive that hummer to take advantage for cheap oil.

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
Daily is up on 62 and down on 55 and flat with 13, pretty far from 62 also.
3 hourly is up on 62 and 13, flat/turning on 5
hourly is up on 62 and choppy 5/13 hourly 62 is at 1.4940, which is the support for this morning's news.
15 is choppy between 4990 and 4940.
resist: 1.4990, 1.5000
support: 1.4940,
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time. Ben is talking.
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

2009-11-13

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
Daily is up on 62 and flat with 5/13, pretty far from 62 also.
3 hourly is up(turning) on 5/13, flat with 62.
hourly is up on 5/13 flat on 62.
15 is up on everything.
resist: 1.4920 1.4940 and 1.5000
support: 1.4850, 1.4810, 1.4760
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time. no news coming
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

I will short at 4920 level, and if more on 4950 level.

Got order in at 4923, and 4916, now trading at 4925, I have stop at 4930 and 4935, target at 4910 and 4905.

Both stopped out, -24 today.

2009-11-12 U.S. Jobless claim improve

5.63 M vs 5.77M.

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is up on 62, but turning down on 5 1nd 13, with a big red bar.
3 hourly down on everything, with 5 crossing 62. 1 hour is down on everything. 15 is way over sold, 5 is down trend as well.
resist: 1.4900 1.4940 and 1.5000
support: 1.4850, 1.4810, 1.4760
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time. no news coming
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

I will short, already have a small potion at 4868, will short more if it bounce back to 4900 to 4880.

I did both long and short. It's choppy and I have to go out so missed last move down.

+10 pips today

Australia is hiring!

News for AUD is suprising everyone, Australian Employment Surges 24,500; Currency Rises.

AUD is up 50 pips in 3 minutes, while EUR/USD is up 20 pips. seems the cap at 1.5020 is still there.

Trading with iPhone.

I have Oanda account and they have "support" for iphone. Which you can just use your browser to their web site, they have a special page for mobile users, which provide better view for you.
But the order type is limited, you cannot change your order once you enter it.

For charting, I use Forex OTG, it's a free app on iPhone. Which has better news then most of other site.

I also have bloomberg, yahoo, cnbc, fx360.. But these are just for fun.

I use google reader on iphone to read all you guys blog pages.



PS: I cannot go out without the phoen, not for trading, but it's the best toy for my 9 month old boy.

2009-11-11 Keep the stop small and let winner run.

Which is always the truth, the hard part is, how small is small, if it's too small, you will always get stop out and before you can jump back in, it flys away. And also how to let your winner run and what if it doesn't run and fell right back?

My way is to keep taking profit on the way up.

PS: Just heard ADBE lay off 800 works. Man, they are the one keeps hiring in the past difficult time.



OK, the last position was stopped out just down today is
+10 pip.

reckless trade.

I'm now facing a 240 pips max risk, due to average down on a false breakout at 1.5005 level. I have stop 1.4940 level, it will be about 15% of loss if it get stopped out, well, at least I didn't get a margin call yet.
Currently it's at 4985 level.



Ok, this trade I end up with +80 pips, that's the worst thing you can do, which is getting reward on bad trade, that make you feel like you don't have to follow the rules the strategy that you spend hours and hours to build. This really makes me feel bad.

2009-11-10 Median home price fell in 3Q.

Housing is an important section, as it affect the mortage market, and we have about $20T in that market. It will affect banking big way, and then banding will affect general market.
Housing is in general stablizing, that doesn't mean it's going up from here, it could be a 3 year flat from here until 2013 (base on Case Shiller Price future).

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend. Daily is up on 5 13 62, 3 hour is up on 62 down on 5 and 13 flat. hourly is up with 62 as support at 1.4940 level, and down with 5 and 13. resist again is at 1.5020. 15 minute is down, kind of bottoming at 4940 level, choppy.
Support: 4940, 4920 (previous high)4850, resist at: 5000, 5020.
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time.
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

Don't really know where it's going today, will watch. Protect your capital is most important so that you can always have your next better trade.

It's bored, I'm putting a buying order at 4940, stop 4930.

OK, my short order got filled at 4965, I have stop at 4971, and target 4955. RR: 6:10

I took half at 59, now free trade.

After change my target to 50, it missed. And now trading at 60 level.. As I'm in free trade mode, it's OK for me to hold on to it.

-14 pips today, keep on shorting which is not what I planned.

Failed to breakout Oct's high.

We pulled back little on EUR/USD, ES is down 3.5 points as well. As you can see from the chart, it's bouncing from the 62% fib line.



The reason for the pull back? GBP.

* 10 Nov 09: 05:11 GBP/USD Flows - GBP dives from 1.6745-50 to 1.6667 on Ftich warning of UK AAA status

Cable dives to day lows of 1.6667 from 1.6745, EUR/GBP Jumps to 0.8982 highs, on Fithc warnign UK most at risk of losing its AAA status, Germany the least. More next.

GBP dive 150 pips in 15 minutes after the news.



I have a short order at 1.4974, with stop at 84, the order is stopped out in 2 minutes. another order at 4982 stop at 4992, see how it goes. My max limit is 20 pips.

Both position stopped out.
-20 today.

Resources related to Forex trading.

Here are some resources I use related to forex trading.

Yahoo finance.
Bloomburg radio, they are pretty good at news time, I know Oanda has news as well, but they are in general 5 to 10 minute late, such as FOMC / NFP numbers.

The mind of a trader, very good podcast.
Traderfeed: http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/ greate site for trading psychology
dailyfx.com nice calendar.

Videos:
BK: http://www.youtube.com/user/BKTraderFx
Orion: http://www.youtube.com/user/orionmachine

2009-11-09 another try to the Oct high.

We have 1.5060 as high in Oct 21 2009, and now we are not far away from it. Stock market is up 140 this morning, and it's this year's new high. The first thing pop in my mind is, will this be a double top?

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend. Daily is up on 5 and 62, flat on 13, 3 hour is all up, but quite extended. hourly is all up as well, current resist at 1.5020. 15 minute is side way, with a rising 62 ema. 5 minutes is purely side way with hi 5020 and low 4980 (40 pips range).
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time.
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.

I will go long at 4980 and short at 5020.

10:16, bot some at 4990, stop at 77, take half at 00 and rest at 20
10:40, moving up, I was 1.5 pips away from my first target, now change my stop to BE, I can always buy later at lower price.

0 Pips for today, as it's not going anywhere.

2009-11-08 Break above 1.4900

Daily is up on 62 and flat with 5 and 13, 3 hour is all up, hourly is all up, 15 is all up, I don't reallly want to play the break out on the long side, but will see, as the 1.4900 has been the resist for the past weeks.

1: I have long order at 1.4916 and stop at 1.4900, target 1.4940. Will take some profit at 1.4930.
After the order is filled, it moves more, I change my stop to BE, I can always enter again if it drops back.

2: half of the position is off at 4927 and now I'm letting the rest run with stop at BE.

3: No time to wait, close everything else at 4935, total

+15 pip.

Coming week 11/8/2009 to 11/14/2009

Next week is light for US, not much news/data at all compare to the past week, we just had FOMC (0.25% vs 0.25%) and NFP (10.2% woooo).



Here is the chart for daily and hourly, break above 1.4950 will be important for the bull.

Daily risk and reward.

I'm risking 20 pips every day and hope to get 30 to 40 for my target, it's a nice goal but hard to get there. In most of my trade, after I get in I will have stop and target at the same time, and I will move my stop only when it moves in my favorite.
Not like most of the forex trading web site, this blog is not about picking entry and finding signal. It's about risk control and where my stop/target.
I believe most of the move in forex market is 50/50, and I also believe the support/resistance theory, so when you have some profit, book it and let the rest run.
The reason I need a stop in place is, It keeps you in the market and continue to trade, I don't have to be sitting there and watch others making the move in the market while all my cash are in deep water. The path to success is build up with large number of solid hit, not a single home run. I will post my capital curve once a week/month.

Frist Post, introduction and background.

This is my first post on this blog, I just want to use it as a tool to track my trading record and give some data for end of month analysis, hope this can improve my trading performance overall.

About the trading vehicle, I mainly trade EUR/USD (99% of the time), about forex trading in general, you can google it and there are lots of educational website for entry level traders. The main reasons I pick this is because:
1: 24 hours around.
2: liquidity
3: small spread (meaning lower cost)
4: information transparency

About broker and charting program, I use Oanda as my trading broker, mainly because of the "free" trade, well, they do expend the spread to make their profit, but compare to my size, it's OK. For charting, I use Amibroker and with IB feed. Mainly because the backfill feature down to minute level so that I can get more information.

Size: I'm using 10 times of margin only, which is small in Forex trading, but that's my starting point and will see how it goes.