2010-04-30 longlonglong

it's actually short covering.. but capped at 1.3350. I join the crowd, but little late.


Now done for the day, for the week and for the month... Good luck everyone for next month.

2010-04-29 bigger picture.

I don't do this often, today I got some time at night, let's look at the bigger picture of EUR/USD.



First is daily picture, it's clearly a down trend, and there is no apparent bottom, we could see 1.2 or 1.1 in the end of the year.


Then it's hourly, we may have a bottom at 1.3150 level, especially people are whispering that China and other Asian country are buying at that level. But I still feel that we need to see price lower (or at least re test 1.3150) before seeing it goes higher.

Again, this is just longer term view, it doesn't really matter in short term trading.

2010-04-29 short the pop.

I messed up pretty big yesterday in FOMC trading. keep shorting and end up with some big losers.

Today was a regroup day and I short with some smaller size.



The trade was during German Finance Minister's talk.

2010-04-28 short eur.

follw the bigger trend.


FOMC today at 11:15 PST, be aware of the market move could take all your stops out.

2010-04-27 rating.

S&P has cut Portugal"s credit ratings

2010-04-26 gambling...

This is wrong, I just said lastnight that I want to stop 5x trading size and see if I can get consistent gain and increase my base size. Today I traded a 10x size...

weekly review

4/18/2010 39
4/19/2010 5
4/20/2010 26
4/21/2010 3
4/22/2010 40
4/23/2010 19


Total of 132 pips, more important is, I didn't have any rule breaking day....

1: follow the trend on 1 minutes, buy the dip or short the top at EMA62.
2: Against trend on double top with 5 more minutes apart between the tops (or bottom).
3: Have a plan and trade the plan.
4: Keep the current size, and if I don't have any RB trade, don't have any 5x trade this week, I will increase my size to 1.5x next week.

2010-04-23 range on the top.

2010-04-22 it always drop after I cover.

2010-04-22 follow the down trend.

Eur/usd sold off overnight from 1.3400 to 1.3300 because of the greece issue widen.

I was able to capture a little bit of the move.




later on today:

2010-04-21

when there is no trend, it's very hard to trade, I did get little bit of it. but still stop out some.





Also timing is important, it's 8:00 AM PST, people are going out for lunch or having a break, market is not as active as 6 or 7 in the morning.

2010-04-20

eur/usd changed direction overnight, after get the low of 1.3450, it runs up to 1.3525 nad then pulls back to 1.3475. I plan to short at 1.3490 level...



As the news comes out at 6:00 for CAD rate, USD got sold, I was longing eur/usd.
BOC said, with recent improvements in the economic outlook, the need for its low-rate pledge is now passing, and it is appropriate to begin to lessen the degree of monetary stimulus.




Update: USD/CAD hit 1.0000 and bounce back, I closed my eur/usd position at 83. It's still down trend / bearish view on 5 and 15 minutes chart.


At the last, I wasn't able to do what I planned. Dannngggggg...

2010-04-19 some scalp.

I had some scalp, both long and short on Eur/USD tonight, here is the chart:

2010-04-19

price of eur/usd drop to 1.3420 overnight and form a bottom, then jump up to 1.3475 level, which was yesterday's high.
next high is 1.3500.

Don't know long or short yet.

Later on, I scalped for little.

2010-04-18 buying the previous week's low

"The EUR/USD fell to 1.3455 in early Asia after stops below 1.3470 were triggered. The move lower was sparked by a WSJ report saying that the UK and Europe were looking for SEC information on Goldman - which has led to speculation of possible legal action against Goldman in Europe. "
The thing is, from Oanda trading platform, I see the low was 1.3468, so I traded base on that. Here is the chart.





Update: Actually after I change my Oanda setting on when the week starts, it shows we are low at 1.3461, I was lucky in the previous trade.

weekly review

4/11/2010 -173
4/12/2010 181
4/13/2010 19
4/14/2010 13
4/15/2010 33
4/16/2010 3

Total of 76 pips this week, again the goal for next week is:
1: follow the trend on 1 minutes, buy the dip or short the top at EMA62.
2: Against trend on double top with 5 more minutes apart between the tops (or bottom).
3: Have a plan and trade the plan.

2010-04-16 GS is at focus

I am by the SEC charges against Goldman, I guess nobody knows what will happen next and it's Friday, so people just trying to dump whatever they have now and protect their weekend.

I didn't do well, I was long for the whole time and got some loss, now the last runner is in place and hoping it get back some early lost.




End up with BE, I'm out to the beach, good weekend everyone.

2010-04-15

Eur/Usd sold off over night, from 1.3640 to 1.3520, and now bounce back to 1.3560 level.
The weekend gap is almost filled.
I'm shorting with 1.3570 stop, see where it goes.

2010-04-14 Ben talk again.

There you go:
EUR/USD ticked higher, to 1.3631 from 1.3592 late Tue, according to EBS via CQG, as Fed's Bernanke, in answer to a question, mentions his expectation that key rates will remain low. Investors use low-yielding USD to fund bets in riskier assets.
This happens at 7:28 PST. I was actually shorting at that moment, but able to change direction right away..

Good trade I give myself a A rating.

Here is the chart

2010-04-13 short....

a successful Greek auction of short-term debt couldn't pushing up EUR. It keeps sliding down. I was able to get a small piece of cake from the down move.



I went long after this, the entry missed by 1 pip.

2010-04-12 Can we long eur?

It was a busy night yesterday, eur/usd tested high at 1.3690 and pulls back to 1.3570 level, I don't think it's going to fill the gap soon, at least not before tomorrow's Greece bond sell. We will see the market reaction on that. It's true longer term eur is bearish, but near term, this news need to have some effect.

I long EUR/JPY at 126.60, stop 126.50 and will take some off the table at 1R.

Reason for using eur/JPY is I coudn't get my eur/usd order filled.

2010-04-11 Offer accepted.

German agree on the offer/deal with Greece. Here is the trade.

The spread is like 10 pips..




another round of trading with bigger size... still in water.

weekly review

4/4/2010 1
4/5/2010 -5
4/6/2010 -35
4/7/2010 61
4/8/2010 8
4/9/2010 17


Total 47 pips this week.


Goal for next week:
Trade these 2 setups:
1: follow the trend on 1 minutes, buy the dip or short the top at EMA62.
2: Against trend on double top with 5 more minutes apart between the tops (or bottom).
3: Have a plan and trade the plan.

2010-04-09 Greece is fixed.!

For couple times already, and I don't think this time it's the end.

Eur/USD moved up about 100 pips to celebrate this. I was part of it, with only little profit...

Oanda and iPad.

I'm a big apple fan, and I always wanted to have a tablet pc kind of device to trade fx. Anyone knows how to run Oanda trading application on iPad? Not the web based text quote, but the Java based application that can show chart and trade in real time.

2010-04-08 can we short?

eur/usd tested mar 24 low 1.3280 and bounce back, daily chart remains bearish.
in hourly, resist is at 1.3380 area as ema5 is crossing ema13, little bullish sign.
as for 5 and 15 minutes, 5 is above 13 above 62, seems to be little over bought, as on 1 minute, 55 is the recent high, I will short from 50 to 55 area..

2010-04-07 execution.

Pretty good execution today.

2010-04-06 FOMC statement.

Wrong trade, FOLLOW the TREND!!!!



the next one is trend follower.. I wish I can do this more often.

2010-04-06 Greece again?

Last night Aud/USD rate news, I didn't trade it, I was busy with trading Eur/usd down side move from 3490 to 3420 level.

This morning, it went further to 1.3360 and bounce back to 1.3370 now. with resist at 85. I'm looking to short at 85.




Now I have a short limit order at 90

2010-04-05 slow market

I traded some last night, slow market, got some long at the bottom around 1.3460 to 1.3470 level, but closed too early as I have to go to sleep and I don't want to have open position over night.

This morning the price tested 1.3530 level (yesterday's high) and pull back to 1.3511 after the US news, about pending home sell and ISM. It seems housing market as "bottomed", the thing is, you won't know until next year the same time around, y/y comparison make sense while m/m in housing market is just kids game.

Plan is short at 30 level if it gets there again.




As I comment to OS's reply, I'm still holding the last portion of my trade, today is going to have the rate decision of discount rate in USD, that's why the price is trying to reach lower (I think).

Fed did this last time at 13:30 PM PST. not sure what will be this time, I don't really want to trade it, because Oanda will have 3 or 4 pips spread, that's killer to me.

weekly review and monthly goal.

Here are the numbers:

3/28/2010 12
3/29/2010 38
3/30/2010 -34
3/31/2010 4
4/1/2010 21
4/2/2010 19

Total of 60 pips for this week, as I traded 6 days, average 10 pips a day.

The goal is to focus on execution of the plan, and try to use limit order as much as posible, not market orders.

There are 2 type of setup I should be trading.

1: Support or Resist play, when a support or resist is approaching, the price would either break through it or bounce from it. I shall watch the reaction at the key level and follow or fade the move. In execution, I shall short the pop or buy the dip.


2: Pirce moves in one direction with strong trending. I shall follow the trend and buy the dip or short the pop.

2010-04-02 NFP at 162K.

Today we have the NFP number out, when everyone is on vacation. Stock market is closed for Easter and only FX/Future are open.

We have the number now 162K, which is lower than the exp 190K, but higher than some of the lower line at 140K level.

The price was build-in with 190K yesterday when it's rally to 1.3590 level, and pull back to 1.3550 level before the news. Now 10 minutes after the news, it's still trading at 1.3550 level..




My plan was:
E/U had suport at 1.3540 and resist at 1.3590 before NFP, it was between 1.3560 and 1.3545.
My plan is to follow the trend and with after the news when spread smaller than 1.
Buy the dip and short the pop in mini trend.


My execution was: I traded with half of regular size, didn't wait unitl the spread drop to 1. Take profit quickly. Dip and go.

2010-04-01 SNB helped on EUR.

This morning,(PST) SNB buying EUR to keep their own currency low, EUR/USD break above previous day's resist and rally, I had some good execution!











E/U didn't do much after this. And people are ready for tomorrow's NFP I guess. But there won't be stock market trading tomorrow, only FX and Futures.