Monday, May 31, 2010

2010-05-31

last day of May, and market is closed in US as holiday. EUR/USD is sliding down but very slowly.
I don't have trade today.

update, a long position in place. the reason behind it is, it's at the previous support point and today's choppy market won't break down too much. I do have my stop in place the first entry.


Sunday, May 30, 2010

windows 7

Just installed windows 7 on my computer. It's suprisingly easy.

1: resize my boot partition. (vista was there).
2: install win7 on another partition.
3: Install Firefox, Oanda desktop, copy over Amibroker, install IB TWS.
4: Install iTune.
5: Done..


Friday, May 28, 2010

weekly review

Go back to last week's review, here is what I have planned for this week:

1: Never remove stop anymore!

2: Pick your trade: including risk and time frame before the trade.

I met #1. And I met #2 4 out of 5 days. Friday I didn't trade with my plan.

Lession's learned this week:


1: trade your plan, break the plan will always make it worse.
2: you don't need to trade bigger size to get all lose back, and you don't have to hold until profit hudge.

sharp drop.

EUR/USD dropped from 1.2364 to 1.2280/90 in 5 minutes, anyone knows any news going on?

OK, it's Fitch downgrades Spain to AA+

2010-05-28

daily down, bottoming.
3 hourly sideway
hourly choppy.
15 choppy
5 down..


don't know what to trade, will watch.

update: I didn't do well today, about -40. I had 7 or 8 stop out, no winner, I did get some 15 to 20 pips on paper, but wanted more.

The chart will be here tonight.

Thursday, May 27, 2010

2010-05-27

daily is down. 3hour is down, 1 hour is between 1.2150 and 1.2350, but down..15 is choppy 5 is choppy...
news just came out slightly worse than expected, ES is up 22..

1.2270 leve is a short for down trending ema62, but need to trade with half size.


update:


update2:
Closed all of them at 1.2220 level. Hope I won't regret today, still remember after I close my position yesterday, it went another 100 pips lower.

update3:
some long after the short.



update4: Now I regret again, it's at 1.2310, another close to 100 pips run after my close.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

2010-05-26

again, eur/usd trade within the range, it pop up to 1.2340 over nigh and dip to 1.2250 now it's trading at 1.2270.

on daily it's still down, 3 hourly is also down, 1 hour is down, 15 down, short the bounce, or ema62 play.

I have an order short at 1.2277. (stopped out)

US stock market is opening in 13 minutes, expect some more action there.
at 7:00 US new home sale is out, 504K, guess people are rushing to take the 8000 credit.

EUR/USD fall after the news. I was able to short.



update1: I regret that I close my last position, it's now 1.2198

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

2010-05-25

still baby steps in recovery mode.
Eur/usd sold again over night, it's clear down trend in bigger picture, just need to find resist point to short it.
1.2240 is one.
break of 1.2180 is another



update, I short couple times, end with little pips.






update2: my short at 1.22359 was missed by 1 pip, didn't fill.

update3: I canceled my order at 1.22359, as price basing at 1.2230 level, the upside breakout is a better chance now...

update4: I had an order at 1.2269 was filled, it's base on the ema62 bounce play in 15 minutes chart. I took half at 1.2260 and rest is running now.



The pop was due to the better than expected news, CC (Consumer Confidence) hits 63.3.
But the overall market was so bearish, I don't think this move will last. Keep my target in pace (1.2210 level) and move my stop to 60.


Monday, May 24, 2010

2010-05-24

EUR/USD sold overnight, from 1.2500 to 1.2360 bottom and now bounce back to 1.2382 level.1.2400 is a resist, short there, plan to get stop 2 times.
target 1.2380

US market just opened, boring.


Update1: a little tiny scalp.

Friday, May 21, 2010

weekly review.

Not much to review this week, otherthan I got MC (Margin-Call) again.
While waiting for my account to be re-funded (by mid June or end of June), now I have plenty of time to talk about the 3 times MC and summarize some about this year's trading..

1: May 2nd, Sunday night, I was keep buying EUR/USD and also some personal reasons affect my trading/thinking. Before I sleep that night, I give back all the yearly gains (about 1000 pips) on that trade. Then I hold on to that trade.
2 days later, I was stopped out by MC, with maybe 40% in my account.

2: I jump right back in again, buying and hold, couple days later, stopped out with 20% account.

3: This week, also Sundaynight, I was shorting and left the position overnight, stopped out with 10% account.

2 of them triggered at Sunday night, don't know it's because I'm over confident on Sunday or tend to over trade on Sunday. Giving back yearly profit is bad, but worse is to keep the position and let it go without stop. I had it 2 times before these 3 MC, in that 2 times, 1 came back with a nice profit (I was trading AUD/USD rate hike), and another one end up MC a different account, that I was trading the NFP, I still remember last year, there were once the NFP number was super good, and I keep buying eur/usd, got stopped out at 1.42 level.

I'm trying to find common cause of these 3 MC happened in this Month, I found out some symptom.
1: They all happened with out stop.
2: I tried to talk myself that I'm really good at trading if I don't got these 3 MC. There is actually some fundamental reason behind the MC. I tend to get a winning day for everyday, yeah, everyone is trying, but I won't admit a losing day easily so I traded until it wins. The problem is, I lose control with risk management when I trading for longer time. I remember early in the year, I use to write the trade first and then get into the orders. That way I have my risk on paper. Later on, I traded pretty well so all the paper gets out of the way and that's where the risk control become an empty title.
3: more than once, I decided not to trade the Asian session because of overall I don't get good performance on that. Good setup is always there, but it involves chart/price/news and Time Frame!

Good example is, there is a nice cup and handle setup today right before the news, do you trade it or do you wait? You Wait, because during the news, Oanda expand spread to 10 pips that kills your profit/risk!

I know I can get out lots of rules from this account crash, but they are useless cause I have short memory, long list of rules are just for writen once and then gone. There need to be 1 or 2 at most simple rules I need to force myself to follow. I know I have stop on 99% of the time, in fact, it's the default setting in my Oanda trading platform. Plus my account was just destroyed and funding it later on will take a while. The pain is still there so I don't think keep stop in place will be a problem for me for the next 6 months. The problem will be trade selection, I can allow myself a 40% winner vs 60% loser, cause I got bigger on winner due to my trading at the support/resist point.
And each trade, the risk is pre-set, at least the first trade of the day it is. And if that's a winner, I'm done for the day most likely, if that's a loser, I through the risk control away and trade until it's a winner. This is what's happening now, I need more trade selection process and need to understand and accept that I can have 40% loser.


1: Never remove stop anymore!

2: Pick your trade: including risk and time frame before the trade.

2010-05-21 weekend ahead.

Not much to blog today, as I didn't trade this morning. I did some small round last night for maybe 10 or 15 pips. And I had a short order this morning at 1.2555, when it's dropping and didn't get filled. After it bounced back, I don't want to short anymore... Good and now it's at 70 /80 level...

Anyone out there believe this euro bounce is because of ECB intervene? I don't, if I'm ECB and I want to intervene, I will make it really loud and make it really hard for the shorts. Make them remember my power, at least for a short period of time. 500 pips? Yeah sure, I will make it in 2 minutes! Not 5 days.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

2010-05-20

There is not much to talk about today's trade. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY dropped like rock while EUR/USD goes up some. I was able to get 10+ pips from shorting EUR/USD. And stock market (Nasdaq I followed) touched -90 and now pop back 1/3.

What I want to talk today is about the May 6 crash.
this whole thing about may 6 crash investigation , i don't understand, now they are saying it's because some money manager sold large contract on ES, It's really a hudge number of contract.
Here is the LINK and here is the quot:
=================================
It took about 21 minutes for the firm to execute its sell order, Gensler said. "In markets with average volume, it would have taken significantly longer -- perhaps hours." 
==================================

I know ES trading around 1 to 2 m contracts a day, and I heard someone whispering that company was selling a 600K contract? Come on, u don't sell the damn 600K in one market order, u know you are not going to filled and you will crash the market, there are many many many tricks u can play. U can put a 100K buying order 2 points right below the current price and there will be tons of day traders try to front-run your oder. Then u can short as many as you want until u pull your 100K buying order out! There are many brokers make their life on these kind of tricks and their performance is evaluated by this.

Plus, u need about 3B to short this size of the contract and you might be hedging on a 20 to 30 B portfolio.

and now, they are talking about how to prevent market crash....
my point is, everyone enter the market knowing there is a chance of crash, why prevent it.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

2010-05-19


price couldn't break lower, short covering send the price back to 1.2300 level. Now it's traded at 1.2282.

It's still down trend from hourly point of view, but on 15 and 5, it's up trend. From the chart, ema62 on 1 minute is acting as support line, but we are making some lower highs. So it's not wise to buy at that level.

update, I am still holding a short at 1.2360 level, see where it goes... Stop about 10 pip.

update, It was stopped out.

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

2010-05-18

Question:
Do you know what's bad in FX trading?
Answer:
You get a Margin Call.
Q: What's worse in FX trading?
A: It's getting another margin call
Q: What's worse about getting 2 margin-call?
A: it's getting 3

I'm getting the 3rd one today... lucky I didn't fund my account yet, it's still that broken account 2 weeks ago.

And now the price going into my direction for 140 pips. The margin call happen to me at -120 pips.

I'm clearly trading OVERSIZED!!!

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Thursday, May 13, 2010

2010-05-13 short with the trend.


The trend is lower, though not much strong as last night.
I was able to short with it.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

2010-05-11 short eur/usd?


I'm looking to short at 1.2650 level, stop at 1.2670.


I shorted some at 45, closed at 29

Sunday, May 9, 2010

Friday, May 7, 2010

2010-05-07

NFP today, much nicer number, and.. EUR/USD dropped after it.
Here is the chart of 10 seconds and 1 minute







The plan is to short at 2710 level with the down trend line, if I got a bounce.
Update: It dropped too fast, I end up short at the ema62 of 10 seconds chart.





And here is the trade yesterday.




1 win vs. 2 loser, but BE overall.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

2010-05-05 I will still blog/trade

I don't want to say anything and I wanted to hide somewhere, but later on I thought I'd be honest, trading is part of the life and it's interconnected closely. If it doesn't blow up here, it blows up somewhere else. This time it happens in both trading and real life.




What's funny was, I always had a short bias in the market, no matter which market I was looking like, eur/usd aud/usd usd/jpy spy cl gc... In fact I just sold almost all my 401K last week. But now I cut my account 80% by this long trade.

1: there was no plan before the trade, well, there was, "to make money back".
2: there is no trend following.
3: no stop loss
4: There is mentally disruption from real-life-crisis.
4: There is really just one reason for it, No-Risk-Control.

Risk-Control is the only reason I have this blog, as it's still now my #1 problem, I won't close this blog or hide anywhere, I will continue blogging until I get the problem fixed.


BTW: this account is the 3rd one I blow up, so it's not a new thing to me, the size wise is the BIGGEST one. At least now I have a trackable record for it, as of the previous 2, I don't even remember when/how it blow up.

Sunday, May 2, 2010

2010-05-02 swing trade.


I don't do swing trade much, this is one of them, I am betting on an inversed head and shoulder patten.

Saturday, May 1, 2010

weekly review and monthly goal.

A month goes by so fast.. here is the weekly number:

4/25/2010 4
4/26/2010 79
4/27/2010 21
4/28/2010 -108
4/29/2010 43
4/30/2010 16

Total of 55 pips. Biggest lost came from FOMC trade. I was having a short bias, so even have some smaller position (1/4 size) before the news, that didn't hurt me much on the stop loss, but that short bias hit me hard that I keep on shorting.


As of Monthly, total of 381 pips, 14%. This is so far my best month:
Jan: 63
Feb: 359
Mar: 19
Apr: 381

Seems like I should only trade every other month... LOL, let's see what will happen in May 2010.

The goal is:
1: follow the trend on 1 minutes, buy the dip or short the top at EMA62.
2: Against trend on double top with 5 more minutes apart between the tops (or bottom).
3: Have a plan and trade the plan.


I cannot increase my size as I had 2 times break the rule last week, I will keep this in mind and if next week (first week of May) I don't break the rule, I will increase my size to 1.5x.