SPY

I had closed my longer term position in SDS, it wasn't that I think the market will go up, actually I think the market will go down more from here 1200 level, to test 1150 and then backup, the problem is SDS is for intraday trade and not meant to be holding longer term. I'm losing 5 to 10% just because of this. As you can see, we are at 25 to 26 level, but we are suppose to at 28 level...

Anyway, I'm out for now, lesson learned.

Current view of the market.

SPY is topped at 1190 level, as long as that stays, we are still having the potential of going back to 1040. I believe we will be choppy within this range to make our yearly gain at less than 10%.
Today ES was down 10+ points and closed within 5, bull is still around.

USD/JPY is temp bottoming at 80 level, I feel it's going to break below 80 to 79 or 78 and then the real bottom there and then we back to 90. Just like eur/usd couple month ago break to 1.19/8 and now is back to 1.40.

EUR/USD is topping, we have resist at 1.41 and we are due for the pullback to at least 1.36.
We will revisit this after next week's FOMC meeting.

VIX at 19.

Are we in a bull market? VIX is below 20. Let's see if 1250 of ES is the top.

SPY head and shoulder?

Are we in an inversed head and shoulder in SPY/ES daily chart? If so, we can go up to 1300 at least...


Hope not, I am shorting it now.

2010-06-29

No trade today, here is a chart for ES weekly.




update: I enter an order to short EUR/USD at 1.2216, stop 1.2240 and target 1.2168. Reason for the trade: 1.2216 is the ema62 on 15 minutes, also the daily high.