2010-11-18

Irish taking the aid, eur moves higher, from yesterday, it's up over 100 pips, even though overnight is just 30 pips, market expecting the move from yesterday.

1: daily is flat 3hourly down hourly up 15minute up 5 down, high as 1.3670 support 1.3620 and 1.3580
2: News to come is: 7:00 philly
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? up trend, Irish the driver and job number is not bad as well

4: What do you think the market will do today? moving up.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying the dip
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20

2010-11-04

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly up 15minute up 5 up
2: News to come is: 6:30 ECB speak after keep the rate.
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? FOMC to buy 600B, up trend.

4: What do you think the market will do today? depends on how it work at 1.4270, moving up.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buy the dip,short top, be careful about the fast move.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-10-21

Timthy's letter hit WSJ again..

2010-10-05

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly up 15minute up 5up
2: News to come is: 7:00 ISM
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? BOJ lower rate to 0, where can they go next?

4: What do you think the market will do today? see how 1.3815 works, it's the top for now.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying the dip and short the top.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-09-28

It break out today, EUR/USD pulls back to test 1.3445 and then break 1.3515 line, went to 1.3580. I was TILT to long, lucky I can stay with profit.

2010-09-24

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly up we bounced from ema62 nicely at 1.3300 level, 15 up minute 5 up
2: News to come is: 7:00 home data
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? BOJ intervent and EUR has some good news up 140 pips.

4: What do you think the market will do today? goin up, see if 1.3465will break.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session) yes, but not able to hold on the winner.

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying dip and selling top.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-09-22

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly up 15minute up 5 up
2: News to come is:7:00 home price.
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? FOMC yesterday, it's up, USD bearish accross the board.

4: What do you think the market will do today? up, depends on if 1.3440 get break. I tend to short it. and buy the pull back.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buy dip and short pop.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-09-16 + 30 pips

Not much analysis before the trade, EUR/USD goes up 100 pips overnight, I longed with it for the breakout and then short it when it's fading.

2010-09-15 +30 pips

Only a chart, I didn't do analysis beforehand, purely buy and luck.





This is another one:

2010-09-14 -1000 pips and + 1000 pips.

I had a rollercoster day today and yesterday.
First I lost about 1000 pips (yes, 1K pips) on buying eur/usd, I was stopped out at the low 1.2660. And missed a 300 pips run, I was trading with 10x + size.

Then I long usd/jpy, finally got lucky which BOJ act, I got all the lost back and break even for the YEAR!

This lucky trade (no mistake, it's purely lucky trade) deserve a drink. I'm having it now...






I was at the swimming class (for my son) when BOJ act, I was watching it jump up pip by pip and I said to myself, finally something happened. Too bad, I had already all-in, and there is no money left on the table to buy. Well, I had changed my leverage from 50:1 to 30:1 due to previous big lost, now I was hoping I didn't do that, oh well, I also hope I didn't have a stop at 1.2660 for EUR/USD... well, stop can only save you right?

2010-09-09

1: daily is flat 3hourly down, ema62 1.2765 hourly down, 1.2765 of yesterday's ema62 15minute up 5 up
2: News to come is: n/a
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? selling first to 1.2670 level, and then BIS and Asian buying to 1.2770 level, now drop back to 1.2745 level.

4: What do you think the market will do today? going up.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying dip
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

Big tilt today, lost about 20% of my account, there are couple good things first:
1: didn't trade acount to 0.
2: didn't get margin call.
3: draw down 20%, better than last time (in May, 80%), it's totally different story when talking about recovery from 20% vs. 80% down.

Bad things now:
1: 20% down is a big mentally hit. I really mean BIG.
2: I just came back to almost (5 to 6%) BE for the year, this add on to the hit.
3: I made the same type of mistake vs. May's tilt.
4: I even lost on the same direction, long!
5: The sign was pretty clear this week, I tilt pretty much all the days.

2010-09-03 +50 pips

NFP today, I had a scalp.

My SDS position finally got stopped out at 32.8, now it's trading at 31.8, should have been stopped out at 33.5 level... TILT.






last trade, I promise.





Another note, my usd/jpy long position was stopped out at 84.45, which I entered at 83.80 level. I'm entering again at 84.32 with much smaller size to hold the long weekend.

Note: I closed it as I want to have a nice and clean long weekend.

2010-09-02 +4 pips.

I still have a large position of SDS and now stop is moved to 32.80, which should be stopped out in hours or minutes.

For this reason, I have a short bias on the market so I didn't trade much today.

Got 2 round of scalp of 4 pips total. It could be more, but I don't have the feeling of holding it.

2010-09-01 +10 pips

1: daily is flat 3hourly flat turning up hourly up 15minute up 5 up
2: News to come is:7:00 ISM
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? China and AUD have good data including CHina's PMI and AUD GDP 1.2, which support ES as well, it's up 15 now. We see seller at 1.2850, currently trade at 1.2835.

4: What do you think the market will do today? moving up, see if 1.2850 break, early we tested 1.2856.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner?
buy the dip
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

I did buy the dip, but seems 1.2850 is the cap for now. Even ISM news cannot take it out, plus the news reaction is USD bullish somehow... I close all mine.





BTW: I was stupid enough to hold a pretty large position of SDS during the news, I was with little profit before the news, now deep in the water, anyway, my average price is 34$ and my stop is 33$, currently is trading at 33.65$

2010-08-31 +20 pips.

1: daily is flat 3hourly flat hourly up 15minute up 5 up
2: News to come is:7:00 CC
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? Home price is better that saves the SPY, from -9 to +1 now and EU stock market turns back save the pair from 1.2625 to 1.2730 now. It's trendy up.

4: What do you think the market will do today? moving up

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner?
buy dip
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3




1040 of ES is tested again and amazingly bounced another 12 pips... now it's at 1052.