current market view on Stock, FX, Gold.

It's 2010-10-08, Friday.

Stock market is a bit strange, as the job report isn't really big changer this morning, yes we are worse than exp, but not by big numbers, so it came backup as we are in a bullish uptrend (mid term) anyway. The move behind is, 1T$ QE is expected by Nov 2010 FOMC meeting. Now the Fed is really playing a better hand, market is pumped up, they have way too many choices, compare to last year, they have to QE otherwise it crash. This time the market is almost at post-crisis high and they have QE on hand. Ofcource they will review again before the meeting about all the data, market will be happy if they QE, Market won't be very unhappy if they don't, because they can always QE the next time. overall, I think we are in a bullish mood just because QE push down $ so much. It will bring in more money from overseas.

FX is bit crazy, EUR/USD break couple key resist, even the 61.8% Fib retracement. Really, I mean Europe is no better than US, in fact, PIIGS suck! But so what, ECB put 1T$ out of pocket and stand behind them. Now market is happy and here we go, euro just going higher and higher. I'm still bearish on Euro longer term, but that doesn't matter anyway. USD/JPY is at 15 years low, OK BOJ intervention didn't work that well, they throw 20B$ into water! Nowadays, you need a Trillion, not couple Billion to fool around. I remember early this year, when ECB first say they will have 60B$ to back Greece, EURO tanked! Until they throw 1T out, it dropped all the way to 1.19. JPY will have no difference, they need to spend couple T to save YEN, well, it's also tricky that they are in a such bad political relationship with China, who hope YEN goes higher and higher, and probably China is the single biggest buyer of JPY. There are couple reasons, political pressure, both are exported driven country. Chinese and Japanese won't get along together anyway. Also BOJ lower the rate from 0.1 to 0.1-0, what a stupid move, who cares about 0.1 anyway.

Gold is THE super star this week, and last week, and last month, and this year! It moved up from 1280 to 1360 (80$) in no time! Stock market up, people buy gold, stock down, people buy gold. I'm still think this move is largely because of the weak USD. Now you can see how powerful Fed is and how smart big Ben is, they move up stock market and weak USD without even a single penny, not YET. It's just a few words from GS, and they don't really NEED to do it in Nov's FOMC.

I know lots of people are happy with the market, me too, as I'm happy to see more and more people can work and feed their family. However, I still feel extreme uncertainty about this market.

Have a good weekend everyone. See you all next week.