2010-09-29

I didn't do pre-trade work today, I just get up late, and then watch it for 5 minutes, it's dropping from 1.3610 to 1.3595, so I thought of shorting it to be a good idea. Lucky I have my size right so that I can scale into it and cover most of it at price 90, it did bounce to 1.3603, that's the place I scaled in. And I have my stop at 17 I think.

After review the chart on 5 and 15 minutes, the real good trade I should do today is to buy at 85 to 90 level today. As the bull continue to work on it.


It tested 1.3647 level and failed back to 1.3620 level.

2010-09-28

It break out today, EUR/USD pulls back to test 1.3445 and then break 1.3515 line, went to 1.3580. I was TILT to long, lucky I can stay with profit.

2010-09-27

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly up 15 minute flat 5 flat
2: News to come is:
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? no trend, between 1.3425 and 1.3500, Moody downgrad irish bank push down, but later on it rally.

4: What do you think the market will do today? goin up, see if 1.3500. but mainly between the range

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying dip and selling top.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-09-24

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly up we bounced from ema62 nicely at 1.3300 level, 15 up minute 5 up
2: News to come is: 7:00 home data
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? BOJ intervent and EUR has some good news up 140 pips.

4: What do you think the market will do today? goin up, see if 1.3465will break.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session) yes, but not able to hold on the winner.

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying dip and selling top.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

BOJ again.

2010-09-23

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly up we bounced from ema62 nicely at 1.3300 level, 15 flat minute 5 up
2: News to come is: 7:00 home data
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? IRISH bond spread had lifetime high hit eur PIIGS worry again so we sold off from 1.3390 to 1.3309, and then weak USD data ( claim up to 465) triggers more possibility of QE so USD got sold. so gold is up usd is down.

4: What do you think the market will do today? goin up, see if 1.3380 will break.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying dip and selling top.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-09-22

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly up 15minute up 5 up
2: News to come is:7:00 home price.
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? FOMC yesterday, it's up, USD bearish accross the board.

4: What do you think the market will do today? up, depends on if 1.3440 get break. I tend to short it. and buy the pull back.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buy dip and short pop.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-09-20

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly flat (are we head and shoulder here? ) 15minute down 5 down
2: News to come is: 7:00 NAHB housing index
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? It mainly moved higher last night, but the 4:45 started sell off was no reason yet, I searched couple sources but noone seems knows what happened, it pushed eur/usd from 1.3090 to 1.3030, we now trade 1.3045

4: What do you think the market will do today? dropping.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? sell the pop.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

1: short at 46 stopped out at 52. next on 70
2: short at 65, stop set to 72, stop moved to 75, stop moved to 85, another short set at 79.

2010-09-17 -230 pips

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly flat 15minute down 5 down, 1.3030 is ema62 of 1 hour chart.
2: News to come is: just came usd cpi, match exp.6:55 U Mich.exp 70.
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? no change overnight, it push up to 1.3160 then the middle east selling push it to 1.3040 level, now we bounce back to 1.3060 level. meanwhile, sds drop to 30.29, crap, my average price is 30.8. I will be out if it breaks 30 and stays under.

4: What do you think the market will do today? dropping.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? short pop
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3


1: keep leverage low is helping. I have 2 acount, they are pretty much same size, acc1 is 50:1 and acc2 is 1:1, which is just my reserve, so I trade feels like 50:1, but it's really just 25:1 overall size, this helped today other wize I will be all in at the middle of tilt anyway. BTW: this change happened after the JPY trade. Since I break even for the year, I decided to lower my risk.

2: today wasn't down that much, the break to 1.3040 level was pretty fast, but it didn't stay there, my strength is to short the pop in a down trend, it's different this time, it's bouncing from 40 and never stays below it. Then it form an up trend all the way to 96. There is no point short (or even trading) when I was -60 pip.

3: I traded UMich also, and have 50 pips in pocket for a moment but didn't take it. And I moved my stop to BE and it was taken out on the 2nd bounce of the down trend. As I always do, this should be changed, because I was down -200 + pips, doesn't mean I can get it back in 1 shot. I always try to do this, that's cause my TILT. If I stop trading for the day, my mind will get reset in couple days, and then I will be trading from my new account size as a base. I think lossing is not a good thing, but learn from losing is good. As I had tilted so many times, today I realize that what cause my tilt and how do I avoid more. Sometimes strick rule helped as well. Like today, I have a 300 pips max loss, that's why I stopped at 230. ANother note is, when I was down 100 pips, and I asked myself, do you want to risk another 100 pips or do you want to stop here today, sure I risk another one, this is not the right choice as I was doing it purely against the current trend, even the trend is about to change any moment, it's not the point of this trade, it's the point about this strategy and this mind TILT. And also the risk control, lossing 100 pips is not a big deal, but losing 300 pips is, how to loss 100 pips is also important as if I lost in multiple trade with right stragegy, it's much better than lost it in TILT.


BTW: I thought of ALL-IN at 1.3090 as well, it would be +500 pips now...

2010-09-16 + 30 pips

Not much analysis before the trade, EUR/USD goes up 100 pips overnight, I longed with it for the breakout and then short it when it's fading.

2010-09-15 +30 pips

Only a chart, I didn't do analysis beforehand, purely buy and luck.





This is another one:

2010-09-14 -1000 pips and + 1000 pips.

I had a rollercoster day today and yesterday.
First I lost about 1000 pips (yes, 1K pips) on buying eur/usd, I was stopped out at the low 1.2660. And missed a 300 pips run, I was trading with 10x + size.

Then I long usd/jpy, finally got lucky which BOJ act, I got all the lost back and break even for the YEAR!

This lucky trade (no mistake, it's purely lucky trade) deserve a drink. I'm having it now...






I was at the swimming class (for my son) when BOJ act, I was watching it jump up pip by pip and I said to myself, finally something happened. Too bad, I had already all-in, and there is no money left on the table to buy. Well, I had changed my leverage from 50:1 to 30:1 due to previous big lost, now I was hoping I didn't do that, oh well, I also hope I didn't have a stop at 1.2660 for EUR/USD... well, stop can only save you right?

2010-09-09

1: daily is flat 3hourly down, ema62 1.2765 hourly down, 1.2765 of yesterday's ema62 15minute up 5 up
2: News to come is: n/a
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? selling first to 1.2670 level, and then BIS and Asian buying to 1.2770 level, now drop back to 1.2745 level.

4: What do you think the market will do today? going up.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying dip
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

Big tilt today, lost about 20% of my account, there are couple good things first:
1: didn't trade acount to 0.
2: didn't get margin call.
3: draw down 20%, better than last time (in May, 80%), it's totally different story when talking about recovery from 20% vs. 80% down.

Bad things now:
1: 20% down is a big mentally hit. I really mean BIG.
2: I just came back to almost (5 to 6%) BE for the year, this add on to the hit.
3: I made the same type of mistake vs. May's tilt.
4: I even lost on the same direction, long!
5: The sign was pretty clear this week, I tilt pretty much all the days.

2010-09-08 -10 pips

1: daily is flat 3hourly down hourly down 15minute down flat 5 flat
2: News to come is: N/A
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? SNB selling 1.2733 and BIS buying 1.2666, it's still down trending as now at 1.2690 level.

4: What do you think the market will do today? going down to test 1.2666 again

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? short the pop
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

I'm so lucky to be just out with -10 pips. well, if I hold my position until now, it will be +200 pips. Again I went short, which was planned. There are 2 issues I see:
1: while writing my plan, the pair went from 1.2690 to 1.2615 level pretty fast, that's already a sign of short term strength, I can wait for it to get over and short, but I shorted anyway, this was planned, so no big deal.
2: I wasn't into the right size, yes I traded with 0.66x size, but I added to it quickly, which lead to my later miss trade.
3: I didn't think of when and where should I add more position, I just went short and short again. That's the biggest problem. I tilt.

My biggest risk at a point was 200 pips.

My year to date was only -200 pips. and my goal for this month is to BE, and I'm getting there.

2010-09-07 +40 pips

I didn't do well today, I tilt twice.

I had a short order last night and it worked well. Then this morning I was late to the market, when most of the move is over (at least I thought it was over), then I started with little scalp long position, that turns into a almost margin call disaster. Luck it pulled back and I was able to get out with BE.

Then in the afternoon, I entered another long right before market close, that turned into a 100pip losser again, and I was lucky to get out with 40pips..


I will have more chart for today's trade, no gambling, it's not trade at all today.

2010-09-03 +50 pips

NFP today, I had a scalp.

My SDS position finally got stopped out at 32.8, now it's trading at 31.8, should have been stopped out at 33.5 level... TILT.






last trade, I promise.





Another note, my usd/jpy long position was stopped out at 84.45, which I entered at 83.80 level. I'm entering again at 84.32 with much smaller size to hold the long weekend.

Note: I closed it as I want to have a nice and clean long weekend.

2010-09-02 +4 pips.

I still have a large position of SDS and now stop is moved to 32.80, which should be stopped out in hours or minutes.

For this reason, I have a short bias on the market so I didn't trade much today.

Got 2 round of scalp of 4 pips total. It could be more, but I don't have the feeling of holding it.

2010-09-01 +10 pips

1: daily is flat 3hourly flat turning up hourly up 15minute up 5 up
2: News to come is:7:00 ISM
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? China and AUD have good data including CHina's PMI and AUD GDP 1.2, which support ES as well, it's up 15 now. We see seller at 1.2850, currently trade at 1.2835.

4: What do you think the market will do today? moving up, see if 1.2850 break, early we tested 1.2856.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner?
buy the dip
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

I did buy the dip, but seems 1.2850 is the cap for now. Even ISM news cannot take it out, plus the news reaction is USD bullish somehow... I close all mine.





BTW: I was stupid enough to hold a pretty large position of SDS during the news, I was with little profit before the news, now deep in the water, anyway, my average price is 34$ and my stop is 33$, currently is trading at 33.65$