2010-11-17

There was nothing big happen overnigth, eur/usd stays with 1.3520 and 1.3460, range trade with no direction on either side, it's now at 1.3507 as I type.
ES is up 2, which consider unchanged after yesterday's 20 points drop.

1: daily is flat 3hourly down hourly down 15minute flat 5 flat
2: News to come is:no
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? no trend, range trade.

4: What do you think the market will do today? see what happen at either side of range. can be faster move after range break.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? range trade either side.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-11-16

nothing much changed over night, pair sitll bearish, bounce between 1.3580 and 1.3640.

1: daily is flat 3hourly down hourly down 15minute flat 5 flat
2: News to come is:6:00 TIC 6:15 cap 7:00 NAHB
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy?range day

4: What do you think the market will do today?down side.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? short pop
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-11-14.

Range trade for today.


My view is still down trend, but it doesn't stop me for buying the pair to get 10 pips.

2010-10-11

It was a less movement day, as lots of banks are not trading today (holiday in North America).

China was selling EUR/USD at 1.4000 level and it pulls back to 1.3870 during the day.

This week is relatively short as not much news also.

JPY is leaving the dangrous zoon as it's trading at LEAST at 82.00 level.

Why USD/UPY drop from 86 (post BOJ intervention high) to this level? Because Japanese exporter are hedging!

2010-10-04

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly flat after the pull back of 100 pips last night 15minute down 5 flat.
2: News to come is: 7:00 pending home sale and factory order.
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? China was selling last night, plus the market was down. BIS and Asia buying, low at 1.3667

4: What do you think the market will do today? major trend is still going up, but a pull back to 1.3560 is possible.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buy dip and sell top
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk? 20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-09-17 -230 pips

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly flat 15minute down 5 down, 1.3030 is ema62 of 1 hour chart.
2: News to come is: just came usd cpi, match exp.6:55 U Mich.exp 70.
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? no change overnight, it push up to 1.3160 then the middle east selling push it to 1.3040 level, now we bounce back to 1.3060 level. meanwhile, sds drop to 30.29, crap, my average price is 30.8. I will be out if it breaks 30 and stays under.

4: What do you think the market will do today? dropping.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? short pop
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3


1: keep leverage low is helping. I have 2 acount, they are pretty much same size, acc1 is 50:1 and acc2 is 1:1, which is just my reserve, so I trade feels like 50:1, but it's really just 25:1 overall size, this helped today other wize I will be all in at the middle of tilt anyway. BTW: this change happened after the JPY trade. Since I break even for the year, I decided to lower my risk.

2: today wasn't down that much, the break to 1.3040 level was pretty fast, but it didn't stay there, my strength is to short the pop in a down trend, it's different this time, it's bouncing from 40 and never stays below it. Then it form an up trend all the way to 96. There is no point short (or even trading) when I was -60 pip.

3: I traded UMich also, and have 50 pips in pocket for a moment but didn't take it. And I moved my stop to BE and it was taken out on the 2nd bounce of the down trend. As I always do, this should be changed, because I was down -200 + pips, doesn't mean I can get it back in 1 shot. I always try to do this, that's cause my TILT. If I stop trading for the day, my mind will get reset in couple days, and then I will be trading from my new account size as a base. I think lossing is not a good thing, but learn from losing is good. As I had tilted so many times, today I realize that what cause my tilt and how do I avoid more. Sometimes strick rule helped as well. Like today, I have a 300 pips max loss, that's why I stopped at 230. ANother note is, when I was down 100 pips, and I asked myself, do you want to risk another 100 pips or do you want to stop here today, sure I risk another one, this is not the right choice as I was doing it purely against the current trend, even the trend is about to change any moment, it's not the point of this trade, it's the point about this strategy and this mind TILT. And also the risk control, lossing 100 pips is not a big deal, but losing 300 pips is, how to loss 100 pips is also important as if I lost in multiple trade with right stragegy, it's much better than lost it in TILT.


BTW: I thought of ALL-IN at 1.3090 as well, it would be +500 pips now...

2010-08-27 +60 pips

1: daily is flat 3hourly down flat hourly sliding up 15minute flat up 5 choppy flat
2: News to come is: BB speak at 7:00.
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? nothing special, UK housing and GDP is better but that didn't matter, US GDP better, ES up 7, but that didn't matter yet, the pair is stuck between 1.2700 and 1.2740. Russia has been buyer AND seller for overnight session.

4: What do you think the market will do today? range, up move in short term. currently at 1.2723, see how it handle 1.2740.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner?
Do you take half at 1R?
buying the dip
How many pips it risk? 20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

BTW, the bidding war between HP and DELL went crazy, a 5$ company now is 30$

6:35, 5 minutes after stock market open, ES cool down little, from +9 to +6. EU at 1.2714, very quite morning because BB speaks in 25 minutes.

6:55 U Mich better than expected, but es didn't rally much, I shorted at 35/40 level and take profit at 30. As BB is talking in 5 minutes.

7:00 initial reacting to BB talk is downdowndown, ES now -4, and EU 1.2690 I'm only watch, spread from OANDA is too big, not worth of trading.

And BB says:" "despite this recent slowing, however, it is reasonable to expect some pickup in growth in 2011 and in subsequent years.""
This actually match with my view as well, we are bad, but we are not that bad.

This is an early trade.



this is a missed news traded. I TILT a little, but as long as it's below 1.2740, it's still valid, if it breaks above, I need to swallow the blood.



9:37, 2 hours after BB speak, market react pretty well after the initial down side move, I didn't buy eu but I bot some AUD/JPY, as I had a long position from 100 pips away, not really bother about getting to BE or lose it, it turns out good as I took profit at 80 pips... the old long position is still there and targetting another 100 pips maybe. I also have long usd/jpy and IWM.

As of IWM, I'm thinking take it at the end of the day, as I already have 1$ on the table, don't want to lose it after the weekend. BB's talk has a bad track record that flip after days. Will see what happens.

I sold all of my IWM at 61 level, it went up to 61.7 at close, the problem is that I have done this twice, last time was also BB talk, he give the word "uncertenty" and market tanked. I loaded up with IWM and other shares, but I exit the next day with about 2% in profit, it rally next for about 10%. Let's see if this time it goes 10% next week.


And here is the chart for 5 minutes of the day, it's FLAT, before the news and after the news. The right way is the not trade the news, as Oanda's crazy spread and fast move hard to set stop for the new. Before the new trade, need really to sell high or buy low to make profit, such as today can sell 1.2740, which is the previous high, shouldn't jump in too early.