2010-11-15

TILT today, keep buying at the dip, what if I could short at the pop.

2010-11-11

CSCO down 10% that drags down NQ 20 points with no suprise. ES is back to 1.3680 level previous support and bounce to 1.37. Which I think it's still bearish but be aware of double dip bottom pattern.

Lots of bank close today no trading and there is no TR I think today as US holiday, so the volume SHOULD be light but with CSCO who knows.

I'm keeping an eye on 1.3680 and 1.3740.

2010-11-10

Today is an interesting day, it reverse in the middle of the trading session, I would lose everything including my underware if I keep on one direction only.
The market was really bearish on Monday and Tuesday, today it was more bearish to begin with and then turned in the middle, I got some short, but nothing flys. It's OK, I was only aiming for 10 to 20 pips anyway, so this saved my ass.

As of the short week, there won't be much trading activities tomorrow and Friday, lets' summarize what happened to me in trading this week.

Monday was a good day, It was bearish on Sunday night and carry over to Monday morning, I was able to short and short, but I didn't let the winner run or follow the market, I was hitting my goal for the day then left. Which means I left more coins on the table.

Tuesday was confusing, which it popped back and I had no idea where to go, so I shorted gold which is at high and got stopped out before it reaching my target. This was stupid.

Wednesday was down and down and reversal all the way back up, I was able to capture some short, see, if I continue to short like what I wished on Tuesday, I would have lose everything again. So it's really hard to tell.

Thursday was a great down market, it dropped from 1.3720 to 1.3660 in my trading hour, but I was expecting a lighter market as US BANK and treatury closed, however, CSCO miss in earning report drag down the entire market which is perfect for short, this IS the time to go all-in. I was pretty protective and only traded 2/3 size... damn it. And I wasn't able to let the winner run, well, it run slower as it IS a holiday. I guess the trading error I have is still the effect from Wednesday.


This is the good datapoint and goal of this blog, to keep track of different days of market movement and my own response to the market.

See you next week.

2010-11-08

It's Monday and it's Daylight Saving time change, trading is a little strange today.


1: daily is up 3hourly down hourly down 15minute down 5 down flat
2: News to come is: N/A
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? down trend move as EU debt concerns more for Irish.

4: What do you think the market will do today? down trending move, see if 1.3900 can be support

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? short the top.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3



After all, I feel I traded too early, I was going to waiting until US market open at 6:30, but when I see the price movement, I lose my patient. Will see.

2010-10-19

1: daily is up 3hourly flat hourly down 15minute down 5 down
2: News to come is:
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? China hiked rate 25 bp, USD is higher across the board.we are trading at 1.3800 level for now. ES is down 12 at 1165 level right after market open.
Gold sold off 40$ at 13333

4: What do you think the market will do today? dropping

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying dip, selling pop
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-09-20

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly flat (are we head and shoulder here? ) 15minute down 5 down
2: News to come is: 7:00 NAHB housing index
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? It mainly moved higher last night, but the 4:45 started sell off was no reason yet, I searched couple sources but noone seems knows what happened, it pushed eur/usd from 1.3090 to 1.3030, we now trade 1.3045

4: What do you think the market will do today? dropping.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? sell the pop.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

1: short at 46 stopped out at 52. next on 70
2: short at 65, stop set to 72, stop moved to 75, stop moved to 85, another short set at 79.

2010-09-17 -230 pips

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly flat 15minute down 5 down, 1.3030 is ema62 of 1 hour chart.
2: News to come is: just came usd cpi, match exp.6:55 U Mich.exp 70.
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? no change overnight, it push up to 1.3160 then the middle east selling push it to 1.3040 level, now we bounce back to 1.3060 level. meanwhile, sds drop to 30.29, crap, my average price is 30.8. I will be out if it breaks 30 and stays under.

4: What do you think the market will do today? dropping.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? short pop
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3


1: keep leverage low is helping. I have 2 acount, they are pretty much same size, acc1 is 50:1 and acc2 is 1:1, which is just my reserve, so I trade feels like 50:1, but it's really just 25:1 overall size, this helped today other wize I will be all in at the middle of tilt anyway. BTW: this change happened after the JPY trade. Since I break even for the year, I decided to lower my risk.

2: today wasn't down that much, the break to 1.3040 level was pretty fast, but it didn't stay there, my strength is to short the pop in a down trend, it's different this time, it's bouncing from 40 and never stays below it. Then it form an up trend all the way to 96. There is no point short (or even trading) when I was -60 pip.

3: I traded UMich also, and have 50 pips in pocket for a moment but didn't take it. And I moved my stop to BE and it was taken out on the 2nd bounce of the down trend. As I always do, this should be changed, because I was down -200 + pips, doesn't mean I can get it back in 1 shot. I always try to do this, that's cause my TILT. If I stop trading for the day, my mind will get reset in couple days, and then I will be trading from my new account size as a base. I think lossing is not a good thing, but learn from losing is good. As I had tilted so many times, today I realize that what cause my tilt and how do I avoid more. Sometimes strick rule helped as well. Like today, I have a 300 pips max loss, that's why I stopped at 230. ANother note is, when I was down 100 pips, and I asked myself, do you want to risk another 100 pips or do you want to stop here today, sure I risk another one, this is not the right choice as I was doing it purely against the current trend, even the trend is about to change any moment, it's not the point of this trade, it's the point about this strategy and this mind TILT. And also the risk control, lossing 100 pips is not a big deal, but losing 300 pips is, how to loss 100 pips is also important as if I lost in multiple trade with right stragegy, it's much better than lost it in TILT.


BTW: I thought of ALL-IN at 1.3090 as well, it would be +500 pips now...

2010-09-09

1: daily is flat 3hourly down, ema62 1.2765 hourly down, 1.2765 of yesterday's ema62 15minute up 5 up
2: News to come is: n/a
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? selling first to 1.2670 level, and then BIS and Asian buying to 1.2770 level, now drop back to 1.2745 level.

4: What do you think the market will do today? going up.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying dip
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

Big tilt today, lost about 20% of my account, there are couple good things first:
1: didn't trade acount to 0.
2: didn't get margin call.
3: draw down 20%, better than last time (in May, 80%), it's totally different story when talking about recovery from 20% vs. 80% down.

Bad things now:
1: 20% down is a big mentally hit. I really mean BIG.
2: I just came back to almost (5 to 6%) BE for the year, this add on to the hit.
3: I made the same type of mistake vs. May's tilt.
4: I even lost on the same direction, long!
5: The sign was pretty clear this week, I tilt pretty much all the days.

2010-09-07 +40 pips

I didn't do well today, I tilt twice.

I had a short order last night and it worked well. Then this morning I was late to the market, when most of the move is over (at least I thought it was over), then I started with little scalp long position, that turns into a almost margin call disaster. Luck it pulled back and I was able to get out with BE.

Then in the afternoon, I entered another long right before market close, that turned into a 100pip losser again, and I was lucky to get out with 40pips..


I will have more chart for today's trade, no gambling, it's not trade at all today.

2010-08-30 -5 pips.

1: daily is flat 3hourly flat down hourly flat down 15minute down 5 down
2: News to come is: N/A
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? Market was expecting BOJ to do something more but they only provided what's basic. JPY pairs was sold overnight, There is no market open in UK as holiday today. ES was down from the high last night about 10 pips.

4: What do you think the market will do today? keep going down.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner?
short the pop.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

I didn't follow the plan, it all started I wanted a scalp at 1.2694 level, I only wanted a 5 pip or so scalp, because I was waiting for a pop to short and I feel bored. Of course it failed I was stopped out, then I went long at 75/76 level, and sold some at 80 to 85 level, then I started hoping it go get back to 110 which was where I started in the morning. It never did, in fact it take my rest of the position out at 65, and I long again, with stop at 58, I close all of them at 76, with a net loss of -5 pips. Not very good trading today as I didn't follow the plan I had.

Today's activity is really light, as when it's breaking down side of 1.2675, which was the support for the past couple days, it couldn't break much, it choppy there, I guess UK didn't open today was one of the reason.

Anyway, I will let go easy today and tomorrow, so that the end if month record will be good.

I'm still holding long position on AUD/JPY AND USD/JPY, last night's BOJ meeting was boring and disappointed. I added some more after the meeting but didn't move my stop.