2010-10-08

I just had a sizable lost, now regrouping and hope come back next week.

2010-09-28

It break out today, EUR/USD pulls back to test 1.3445 and then break 1.3515 line, went to 1.3580. I was TILT to long, lucky I can stay with profit.

2010-09-17 -230 pips

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly flat 15minute down 5 down, 1.3030 is ema62 of 1 hour chart.
2: News to come is: just came usd cpi, match exp.6:55 U Mich.exp 70.
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? no change overnight, it push up to 1.3160 then the middle east selling push it to 1.3040 level, now we bounce back to 1.3060 level. meanwhile, sds drop to 30.29, crap, my average price is 30.8. I will be out if it breaks 30 and stays under.

4: What do you think the market will do today? dropping.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? short pop
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3


1: keep leverage low is helping. I have 2 acount, they are pretty much same size, acc1 is 50:1 and acc2 is 1:1, which is just my reserve, so I trade feels like 50:1, but it's really just 25:1 overall size, this helped today other wize I will be all in at the middle of tilt anyway. BTW: this change happened after the JPY trade. Since I break even for the year, I decided to lower my risk.

2: today wasn't down that much, the break to 1.3040 level was pretty fast, but it didn't stay there, my strength is to short the pop in a down trend, it's different this time, it's bouncing from 40 and never stays below it. Then it form an up trend all the way to 96. There is no point short (or even trading) when I was -60 pip.

3: I traded UMich also, and have 50 pips in pocket for a moment but didn't take it. And I moved my stop to BE and it was taken out on the 2nd bounce of the down trend. As I always do, this should be changed, because I was down -200 + pips, doesn't mean I can get it back in 1 shot. I always try to do this, that's cause my TILT. If I stop trading for the day, my mind will get reset in couple days, and then I will be trading from my new account size as a base. I think lossing is not a good thing, but learn from losing is good. As I had tilted so many times, today I realize that what cause my tilt and how do I avoid more. Sometimes strick rule helped as well. Like today, I have a 300 pips max loss, that's why I stopped at 230. ANother note is, when I was down 100 pips, and I asked myself, do you want to risk another 100 pips or do you want to stop here today, sure I risk another one, this is not the right choice as I was doing it purely against the current trend, even the trend is about to change any moment, it's not the point of this trade, it's the point about this strategy and this mind TILT. And also the risk control, lossing 100 pips is not a big deal, but losing 300 pips is, how to loss 100 pips is also important as if I lost in multiple trade with right stragegy, it's much better than lost it in TILT.


BTW: I thought of ALL-IN at 1.3090 as well, it would be +500 pips now...

2010-09-14 -1000 pips and + 1000 pips.

I had a rollercoster day today and yesterday.
First I lost about 1000 pips (yes, 1K pips) on buying eur/usd, I was stopped out at the low 1.2660. And missed a 300 pips run, I was trading with 10x + size.

Then I long usd/jpy, finally got lucky which BOJ act, I got all the lost back and break even for the YEAR!

This lucky trade (no mistake, it's purely lucky trade) deserve a drink. I'm having it now...






I was at the swimming class (for my son) when BOJ act, I was watching it jump up pip by pip and I said to myself, finally something happened. Too bad, I had already all-in, and there is no money left on the table to buy. Well, I had changed my leverage from 50:1 to 30:1 due to previous big lost, now I was hoping I didn't do that, oh well, I also hope I didn't have a stop at 1.2660 for EUR/USD... well, stop can only save you right?

2010-09-09

1: daily is flat 3hourly down, ema62 1.2765 hourly down, 1.2765 of yesterday's ema62 15minute up 5 up
2: News to come is: n/a
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? selling first to 1.2670 level, and then BIS and Asian buying to 1.2770 level, now drop back to 1.2745 level.

4: What do you think the market will do today? going up.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying dip
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

Big tilt today, lost about 20% of my account, there are couple good things first:
1: didn't trade acount to 0.
2: didn't get margin call.
3: draw down 20%, better than last time (in May, 80%), it's totally different story when talking about recovery from 20% vs. 80% down.

Bad things now:
1: 20% down is a big mentally hit. I really mean BIG.
2: I just came back to almost (5 to 6%) BE for the year, this add on to the hit.
3: I made the same type of mistake vs. May's tilt.
4: I even lost on the same direction, long!
5: The sign was pretty clear this week, I tilt pretty much all the days.

2010-09-08 -10 pips

1: daily is flat 3hourly down hourly down 15minute down flat 5 flat
2: News to come is: N/A
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? SNB selling 1.2733 and BIS buying 1.2666, it's still down trending as now at 1.2690 level.

4: What do you think the market will do today? going down to test 1.2666 again

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? short the pop
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

I'm so lucky to be just out with -10 pips. well, if I hold my position until now, it will be +200 pips. Again I went short, which was planned. There are 2 issues I see:
1: while writing my plan, the pair went from 1.2690 to 1.2615 level pretty fast, that's already a sign of short term strength, I can wait for it to get over and short, but I shorted anyway, this was planned, so no big deal.
2: I wasn't into the right size, yes I traded with 0.66x size, but I added to it quickly, which lead to my later miss trade.
3: I didn't think of when and where should I add more position, I just went short and short again. That's the biggest problem. I tilt.

My biggest risk at a point was 200 pips.

My year to date was only -200 pips. and my goal for this month is to BE, and I'm getting there.

2010-09-07 +40 pips

I didn't do well today, I tilt twice.

I had a short order last night and it worked well. Then this morning I was late to the market, when most of the move is over (at least I thought it was over), then I started with little scalp long position, that turns into a almost margin call disaster. Luck it pulled back and I was able to get out with BE.

Then in the afternoon, I entered another long right before market close, that turned into a 100pip losser again, and I was lucky to get out with 40pips..


I will have more chart for today's trade, no gambling, it's not trade at all today.

2010-09-03 +50 pips

NFP today, I had a scalp.

My SDS position finally got stopped out at 32.8, now it's trading at 31.8, should have been stopped out at 33.5 level... TILT.






last trade, I promise.





Another note, my usd/jpy long position was stopped out at 84.45, which I entered at 83.80 level. I'm entering again at 84.32 with much smaller size to hold the long weekend.

Note: I closed it as I want to have a nice and clean long weekend.

2010-08-27 +60 pips

1: daily is flat 3hourly down flat hourly sliding up 15minute flat up 5 choppy flat
2: News to come is: BB speak at 7:00.
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? nothing special, UK housing and GDP is better but that didn't matter, US GDP better, ES up 7, but that didn't matter yet, the pair is stuck between 1.2700 and 1.2740. Russia has been buyer AND seller for overnight session.

4: What do you think the market will do today? range, up move in short term. currently at 1.2723, see how it handle 1.2740.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner?
Do you take half at 1R?
buying the dip
How many pips it risk? 20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

BTW, the bidding war between HP and DELL went crazy, a 5$ company now is 30$

6:35, 5 minutes after stock market open, ES cool down little, from +9 to +6. EU at 1.2714, very quite morning because BB speaks in 25 minutes.

6:55 U Mich better than expected, but es didn't rally much, I shorted at 35/40 level and take profit at 30. As BB is talking in 5 minutes.

7:00 initial reacting to BB talk is downdowndown, ES now -4, and EU 1.2690 I'm only watch, spread from OANDA is too big, not worth of trading.

And BB says:" "despite this recent slowing, however, it is reasonable to expect some pickup in growth in 2011 and in subsequent years.""
This actually match with my view as well, we are bad, but we are not that bad.

This is an early trade.



this is a missed news traded. I TILT a little, but as long as it's below 1.2740, it's still valid, if it breaks above, I need to swallow the blood.



9:37, 2 hours after BB speak, market react pretty well after the initial down side move, I didn't buy eu but I bot some AUD/JPY, as I had a long position from 100 pips away, not really bother about getting to BE or lose it, it turns out good as I took profit at 80 pips... the old long position is still there and targetting another 100 pips maybe. I also have long usd/jpy and IWM.

As of IWM, I'm thinking take it at the end of the day, as I already have 1$ on the table, don't want to lose it after the weekend. BB's talk has a bad track record that flip after days. Will see what happens.

I sold all of my IWM at 61 level, it went up to 61.7 at close, the problem is that I have done this twice, last time was also BB talk, he give the word "uncertenty" and market tanked. I loaded up with IWM and other shares, but I exit the next day with about 2% in profit, it rally next for about 10%. Let's see if this time it goes 10% next week.


And here is the chart for 5 minutes of the day, it's FLAT, before the news and after the news. The right way is the not trade the news, as Oanda's crazy spread and fast move hard to set stop for the new. Before the new trade, need really to sell high or buy low to make profit, such as today can sell 1.2740, which is the previous high, shouldn't jump in too early.

2010-08-26 +20 pips TILT

1: daily is flat 3hourly down, just reject by ema62 last night's high, hourly flat up, bounce from ema62 last night of 1.2660 level 15minute flat up 5 flat.
2: News to come is: no
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? GFK has better news and China buying later one send to 1.2746, then BIS and russia sell to the low and then China buying again and SNB selling. anyway, its' a choppy no trend night ranging 1.266 to 1.275.

4: What do you think the market will do today? choppy up. largely depends on what ES will do, ES looking like pretty bullish, just turned from major down trend for 4 days.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)
I was right about it choppy up, it tested 1.2760 level, but then fail back to 1.27 at close. I was wrong about the relationship with ES and ES turned to red after all.

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner?
Do you take half at 1R?
buying the dip
Is it follow the rules?
How many pips it risk?

6: What's the trade? I
s it related to the previous loser or winner?
Do you take half at 1R?
Is it follow the rules?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3



TILT again, mini TILT. it happens when I'm almost done for the day, it's probably the last move of the day for e/u as well.

2010-08-24 -50 Pips and TILT

1: daily is d 3hourly d hourly d 15minute d 5 d, it's not often to see all timeframe down, time to buy?
2: News to come is: 7:00 Home sale.
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? JPY is the focus today, EUR/USD is just sliding with it, not the focus of overnight, but it will be in US session. JPY pair tanked overnight and stock future down 13. 1.2615 seems to be the cap for eur/usd, after it, long will have a better chance.

4: What do you think the market will do today? ddd

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner?
Do you take half at 1R?
short the pop.
Is it follow the rules?
How many pips it risk?

6: What's the trade? I
s it related to the previous loser or winner?
Do you take half at 1R?
Is it follow the rules?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3


I traded poorly, as I TILT.
Here is the link about TILT.


I so lucky to be ONLY down 50 pips today, there was a -300 pips at a moment.

Actually this morning's movement wasn't surprise, we have some bullish sign already as it went from 1.2596 level to 1.2625 level before US stock market open, and then when it opens, when never ES drop 1 or 2 points, EU hardly moved down, when ES goes up, EU goes together.

I had a short position average at 1.2626 with 3x size before the housing news, lucky I closed it as I thought the wide spread will take me out during the news.

Right after the news, it spiked little and then drop to 1.2615, I was like WTF.... let's short when it pop, sure it pop to 1.2630 where it was the high before news, I was stopped out there, then I shorted 50 60 70 90 and 100. I will in TILT mood fully until I shorted at average 1.2702 with 11x size. I closed all of them at 1.2670 and dare not to look at chart anymore. I was still down 50 pips for today, but it could be -20% of the account at worst case. And now it's only -1.5%.. Lucky me.

There is a key moment when it break 30, I was asking myself if I would like to flip my position, I don't have an answer yet because it went too fast to pass my stop. Then I said screw it let's go all IN. That's the early sign of TILT...

I'm just trying to record the signs and pattens of TILT so that I can avoid it early on, I won't be that luck next time. But if I can limit my lost to -5%, it would be better than -20%.


Another note is, I bot some IWM and it's about 1% in profit now, I'm not feeling pressure on my capital anyway, it's only the TILT need to be addressed.


I actually realized this way early, as you can see the previous couple days, I was reducing my size already. I break my entry to 1/3 or 1/2 but I think what's missing is what if I got stopped out, what's the reason behind the trade and if it's still valid after the stop.

Today's upside squeeze has news behind it, US housing was horrible then there will be more action from FED and then the USD bulls will get killed.


Anyway, a reason for the trade, and revist the reason is needed.


Last note, I was joking early this morning about "1.2615 seems to be the cap for eur/usd, after it, long will have a better chance." .... that's when I have done my homework and I have clear eyes with no TILT mood.

2010-05-05 I will still blog/trade

I don't want to say anything and I wanted to hide somewhere, but later on I thought I'd be honest, trading is part of the life and it's interconnected closely. If it doesn't blow up here, it blows up somewhere else. This time it happens in both trading and real life.




What's funny was, I always had a short bias in the market, no matter which market I was looking like, eur/usd aud/usd usd/jpy spy cl gc... In fact I just sold almost all my 401K last week. But now I cut my account 80% by this long trade.

1: there was no plan before the trade, well, there was, "to make money back".
2: there is no trend following.
3: no stop loss
4: There is mentally disruption from real-life-crisis.
4: There is really just one reason for it, No-Risk-Control.

Risk-Control is the only reason I have this blog, as it's still now my #1 problem, I won't close this blog or hide anywhere, I will continue blogging until I get the problem fixed.


BTW: this account is the 3rd one I blow up, so it's not a new thing to me, the size wise is the BIGGEST one. At least now I have a trackable record for it, as of the previous 2, I don't even remember when/how it blow up.