weekly review (monthly review.)

1/4/2010 14
1/5/2010 28
1/6/2010 16
1/7/2010 19
1/8/2010 42
1/10/2010 19
1/11/2010 -119
1/12/2010 61
1/13/2010 19
1/14/2010 -8
1/15/2010 47
1/17/2010 -146
1/18/2010 15
1/19/2010 39
1/20/2010 6
1/21/2010 16
1/22/2010 26
1/25/2010 -195
1/26/2010 41
1/27/2010 175
1/28/2010 7
1/29/2010 -59

Total of 63 pips in 22 trading days, my target was 200 pips acutally, missed big way. My stop is -400 pips, it was reached by unrealized loss on 1/25, but didn't hit on realized p/l. Again, if I hit that, I will go back to half of the size.

2010-01-29

2010-01-28 half size.

As promised in previous post, I traded half size today.

Still no plan was written before the trade, in general the market is down, DOW, NAZ, SPY, as well as oil and gold. So I took a short at the previous high and take half of at 1R then another half a the previous low.

Nothing suprise.

2010-01-27 FOMC and rollercoster day.

It's a long story.

The trade started before 2010-01-26, which I was doing a range trading at then end of US session of 01-25, I was I think break even or had little unrealized gain. Then I decided to hold on the winner and let it run, but didn't move stop to BE. Which is because I had some cases I was stopped out because moved to BE and missed bigger profit.

This is still fine.

Couple hours later, I was stopped out, then I reentered with bigger size, and stopped out, then again and again. by the time I have to stop, I was down -80 pips. I was shorting.

Later one that night, I realized 10 minutes after I was stopped out, Chinese bank news hit the wire and market dropped 100 pips in 1 hour, which I could be part of it if I wasn't stopped out. So I went reverse, buying the drop. That end up for me lost another -120 pips, and holding a 3.5X position over night. At the night I was using my iphone to check the price every couple hour ( I wasn't sleep well ), at one point I was making about 120 pips in this trade, but I want all of my loss back so didn't close it.

Now it's 1/26, it's range and sliding down, against me, I dind't do much wait until the night for some scalp at the previous support level.

Then it's 1/27, long waited FOMC, market was runing away from me before the news and after the news, there is NO suprise, I was able to pick up some at the low and sold part of it at high, but didn't help much as my 3.5x was too big (priced at 1.4080 level).

Then there was the president talk, and eur/usd tanked, it went as low as 1.3933 for about 10 seconds, I had another ordere for 3x filled at 1.3960 level. I was at one point down -560 pips for this giant trade.

I end up holding totoal of 11.5 x at average price 1.4015, at 1/27 night, my target was 1.4141, it did get there but I fold before it break 1.4130.

In the middle of the trade, I have to transfer extra cash from my reserved account to this trading account and change the leverage from 30:1 to 50:1 in ordere to just stay in the trade.

Now everything settled and I am able to return the fund to my reserved account and change the leverage back. And today's size is only half until I get more stable result.

None of the trade I mentioned in this topic had a PLAN.

It was so much painful to hold a loser and let it run.

It was so much painful to get up at night and watch the P/L to only find out I'm down another -150 pips.

It was so much painful to check the price or wanting to check the price even when I'm driving or playing with the kid.

I wasn't going to write about this at all, but then I realize I have to documented what I feel and hope I can remember it.

2010-01-26

I somehow get myself into holding a large size of long EUR/USD position, and I plan to hold it until tomorrow's FOMC meeting to get an exit. If I am stopped out, I will need to go back to smaller size as last year and redo the work.

2010-01-25

8:00 AM PST, choppy and no trade. existing house number is much worse than expected, I'm expecting EUR/USD to be within the range of 1.4180 and 1.4100.

The price did what I asked. Stay in a range, I was bored and took some trade at 60 to 50 level. Here is the chart:

At the hourly chart, price is really choppy and no direction, even at AH aapl good earning. I should really just buy low and sell high.


What I did wrong was, I was selling at high, which is right, but I didn't cover at low, at least not a big portion of it at low. should cover some whenever it runs out of stteam.













At about 4:00 PM, the spread is 1, and resist is at 60 level, I traded another round, risk of 20 pips.



Now it's 5:00 PM, price tested 70 and stop me out, now it's back to 64, as the move isn't that big, I'm taking another short and with a stop at 71, just to try one more time.



-88 pips, again, I repeated what happened last week, well, not exactly, I was almosts BE at about 3:00 PM, and had some gain even before 4, then give it back when the price spike up, then keep on shorting until now. Good part is, I stopped before it becomes -140 pips.

weekly review.

1: review the trade this week during the weekend.
2: update charts in this blog.
3: write weekly summary for each trading day in this blog.
4: review the goals and rules.



1/17/2010 -146
1/18/2010 15
1/19/2010 39
1/20/2010 6
1/21/2010 16
1/22/2010 26

6 days of trading and lost -44 pips overall, other than the first day, all positive. And missed a big game changer on 1/19 (+150 pips run missed)

Until now, I have total of 52 trading days and 11 pips average a day. Just need to keep this in mind in case I'm aiming for some unrealistic gains, and it will also remind me when to take some profit.

This week's goal will be the same:
1: write a plan and follow the plan.
2: Take profit at 1R and let the rest run.
3: Think of this trading blog is someone else, try to critisize it and find if the entry/exit make sense at all.

2010-01-22

It did break above 1.4150, but then pull back to 1.4120 now, there is a support at overnight low 1.4106 level, I will long at this level and stop with 20 pips.

As for the short side, resist is at 1.4165, I will short here and stop with 20 pips.

2010-01-21

Argue with wife this morning, not really in good mood for trading..
1: Daily is dropping extended.
3 hour is down, resist at 1.4140, support at 1.4029
hourly is choppy, with top at 1.4140 and bottom 1.4029
15 is choppy.
5 is up, just jump 70 pips from 1.4060 to 1.4130.

I will short on 1.4140 risk 20 pip here.

+25

At 8:00 PM PST, EUR/USD on 1 hour chart seems bottoming,

2010-01-20

nice down trend overnight, still looking for short side, but it's already an extended move so I will wait for the bounce.
Now looking at 1.4120 level, next will be 1.4150 level...

Risk at 1.4120 for 20 pips and 30 for 1.4150.

It didn't get to my entry point, so no trade...

I was holding a small position about half of the normal size last night, at the point I had about 50 full size profit at hand, then I start to short with the trend, and keep getting stop out, this is OK. But there was 2 errors, I put a short limit order at 1.4185 level, and when the price break down below it, it was hit, and as the price moves so fast, I added another order. There was nothing wrong with that. But it didn't last long, and it reversed, so I moved my stop to 1.4211, which is 26 pips away, which is also my overall cost, meaning if I was stopped out, I will be BE, meaning I am losing my 50 full size profit.
Which it did.
1: with support and resist play, it's so EASY to set a stop and close by, I won't move it.
2: with breakout play, it make sense to set stop at the breakout point +- 2 to 3 pips.
3: The worst I can think of is, if I didn't do anything last nigt, I will be sitting on 100 pips full size profit now..

2010-01-19

EUR/USD sell off overnight, resist at 1.4300 and 1.4340 , support 1.4260.
1: Plan one, short on the bounce of down trend.
2: Plan two, short on the break of 1.4260.

I traded the plan this time, short on 1.4300 level couple times, stop out and hold on the last position..

There was flat on 1/18 due to bank holiday and then a major sell of 100 pips from 1.4400 to 1.4300, I join the crowd and short, base on my plan and hold on the last winner let it run. What wrong was, I was trying to scalp again in the off session and give back all the gains I had for the winner. Also missed another 200 pips run in the next 2 days.

2010-01-18 bank holiday, no trade.

2010-01-17

1: Daily down, EMA62 act as resist and 5 is crossing 13.
3 hour is down on all 3, 5 13 62
hourly down all 3, 15 down all 3, we are at the support level of 1.4334, and it has been tested couple timestoday.
5 is down as well, no EMA62 yet due to the market just open.

I will short when it's breaking down 1.4335, I have short limit order at 1.4332, stop at 1.4339 and target 1.4322

Current spread is 1.5.

in 1 minute chart, EMA is steady down, I can short of that as well.

Resist at : 1.4350, 1.4355, 1.4375, 1.4400
Support at 1.4300 and 1.4265.

I short half at 1.4339, stop with 10 pip, target 1.4300 level.


-147, don't want to write about it now.

Market open with Gap low and tested previous low at 1.4335 level and chop all the way up. I had a plan to short the breakout on 1.4335, and it was never triggered, then I start betting on the short side, that cause the hudge lost.

What can I do better:

1: I have a plan, need to follow it.

2: I need to really not to trade on off session, when it's not breakout. I had some order short at 32 level, never get triggered.

weekly review

1/10/2010 19
1/11/2010 -119
1/12/2010 61
1/13/2010 19
1/14/2010 -8
1/15/2010 47


ended the week with +19 pips.

1: review the trade this week during the weekend. Done.
2: update charts in this blog. Done
3: write weekly summary for each trading day in this blog. Done
4: review the goals and rules. Done.

Amazing, just after review my trade this week, I realize there are so many places that I need to improve, they are:

1: If I can wait for the breakout to flat, such as the EMA62 on 10 chart to flat at least little bit and then short on top. It will be good profitable trade.
2: Later on the range trade, if I can use limite order to get in at previous low, with a 5 pips stop, could get to 20 pips.
3: Let the winner run longer. One reason is, I have some order not filled at good price because of the early entry before the price drop to support level, so 4: when I take profit, I tend to close them first. Just let winner run, it's free trade anyway.
5: don't trade the off session.
6: have a trading plan and follow it.
7: need to follow the short and intermit trend.
8: I tend to jump right back into a trade when I stopped out, this need to be changed.
9: There is one short need to set closer stop, cannot always use the default.
10: need to take some profit when It's 1R gain. even I'm overall in red.
11: never trade non active session again, meaning spread is 1.5 or more, except breakout of major support/resist point, such as the one ECB talk , and I should only trade with the breakout.
12: follow the direction of the breakout, and write plan before trade.
13: can let the winner run a little longer, but nothing wrong to take it.
14: first trade should take some profit at the 1R level, but I was in bathroom.
15: wasn't going to trade the off session, but when the news hit, still traded. Didn't follow the major trend.
16: didn't write trade plan before the trade.


There are duplicated issue, and overall, there are too many, I think I can just focus on 2 for next week:
1: write a plan and follow the plan.
2: Take profit at 1R and let the rest run.

2010-01-15

1: wasn't going to trade the off session, but when the news hit, still traded. Didn't follow the major trend.

2: didn't write trade plan before the trade.


if I were able follow the rules, 1, didn't trade last night, as even I know the news for rumar of officer resign and later on dismissed, and then ECB talk about not bailout greece. Then this morning around 6 to 7 AM, with the bad CPI number and not so good stock market (JPM and INTC not able to lift it), I would go short. If I were able to get some entry at 00 level, it would be 20 to 30 pips, the key is, after such a nice down trend day, there is no way I go long the market without any fundmental change or any sharp reversal on the technical side.

Also what's the difference of the news/suprise (A) in the off hour compare to (B) the one with our session, which is, B is scheduled and I was ready for it, I have my news tools open up and wait for the number, also I predefined trade plan as well as s/r level. A is not scheduled and it totally suprise, unless it moves big way such as 50+ pips, there is no way I can make money from it.


This is probably my worst trade of the week, the worst part is because I get reward on it, makes me to keep this bad trade. I should get punished by this.

Multiple rules are broken.

2010-01-14 retail down.

Ratail number is much worse than expected, eur/usd struggle for 20 minutes and sell off from 1.4520 to 1.4470, 50 pips.

Daily is still in the range. bounce from ema62, and between ema5.
3 hour is up on 62 and down on 5, bouncing, support 1.4450, resist 1.4550
hourly is choppy, resist 1.4520.
15 is down, after the news and overnight sell off.
5 is down, ema62 is at 1.4500.

support: 1.4468, 1.4450, 1.4400,
resist: 1.4520, 1.4555
2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time. nothing major
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.



plan is to long at 1.4470 level and 1.4450 level,
short at 1.4500 level, and 1.4520 level.

This is my best day of the week, I follow the plan on 1 and 2nd trade..

2010-01-13

1. What is daily 3 hourly hourly 15 s/r and trend.
daily is down on 62, up on 5 and 13, 1.4452 support 1.4580 resist.
3 hour is up on all 3, support 1.4452, resist 1.4580
hourly is up on 13 and 62, down on 5, same support and resist,
5 is down on 5 and 13, and 62 at 4544,
15 is same support and resist, ema62 is at 1.4520


2. Is there any news coming out in 30 minutes, what's trade. There is no news in the coming time.
3. today's spread:0.9
4. What's the size of today, and what's the max risk. normal size, will risk 20 pips.


Plan1: buy at 00 level,
Plan2: buy at 4465 level
Plan3: short at 4580 level.

Bot some at 00 level and closed, then bot some at 78 level and closed as well.

Price went up to 1.4580 and pull back to 1.4480, then stall at 1.4510.. on 15 minutes, it's really choppy, in hourly, it's slightly going up.

I did have a plan, I followed it the first trade, the 2nd trade wasn't following the plan, but it turns out good result.
1: can let the winner run a little longer, but nothing wrong to take it.
2: first trade should take some profit at the 1R level, but I was in bathroom.
3:

Some basic rules for now.

1: never trade non active session again, meaning spread is 1.5 or more, except breakout of major support/resist point, such as the one ECB talk , and I should only trade with the breakout.

2: follow the direction of the breakout, and write plan before trade.

3: In trend following trade, buy or sell the ema62 bounce on 10s or 30s or 1 minutes chart.

4: In reverse trade, only the DIV setup with confirmation.

If any of these rules are broken, I need to write a reason for justification.

Some of the points I can think of, but not required for now:

* What would tell you the trade is wrong?

* Where might you think of adding to the trade?

* Rules that tell you when to take a break and reduce risk (trade size) in a slump

* Think of the what if scenario

Risk/Money management factors:
For example, a 30K USD account, with about 20 pips stop loss, a size of 50K lot, would create max los of 100$ per trade, that is 1/300 (0.33%) risk on each trade. So with 30K USD cap, u can get 1R at 100$, now the table:
1R    CAP
100    30K
500    150K
1000  300K
Looks like one should be live on trading easily with a 300K account. 
When to stop trading for the day: Loss of 5R
When to reduce size of trading: Loss of 15% (45R), with 1:50 leverage, the trading account only need to have 3K, the rest 27K can be in reserve account.

2010-01-12 boring session

It's boring now, eur/usd swing between 1.4520 and 1.4460. I will trade when price approching these levels.

Well, if I only played with 1.4520 and 1.4540 level...the risk is lot lower. I tend to jump right back into a trade when I stopped out, this need to be changed.



The market was boring at first, swing between 1.4460 and 1.4520, then it break above 1.4520, but test 1.4540 and pulled back..

1: I short all the way from 20 to 40, if I have a plan, which only short at these 2 places, it will be much better.

2: There is one short need to set closer stop, cannot always use the default.

3: need to take some profit when It's 1R gain. even I'm overall in red.

-137, big lost more detail to come.

1: traded not active session, when spread is 1.7 to 1.9 pips and on 10 seconds chart, there are lots of idle bar.
2: need to have a trading plan in place before the trade and review it after. I normally have one, but when I trade well for couple days, I tend to forget that.

What happen was, in the afternoon, around 4PM, price start dropping to the dailly support, I went long, and it breakdown more, I went long again, without a trading plan, I just keep long and get stop out and long again. With bigger and bigger size. later on it bounced from 1.4480 which is the daily support and then break down it. It bounce on 1.4460 which is the hourly EMA62. but I was already out of money to just watch on the side line.

Lost about -137, what I can do better?
1: don't trade the off session.
2: have a trading plan and follow it.
3: need to follow the short and intermit trend.