as the book says. let the winner run.

aapl stock.

As an apple fan, I have pretty much all the apple products. I heard someone sold AAPL (Apple stock) at 355$ per share right after the earning at after market trading session. I was thinking this might be a historical high for a while, currently it's trading at 326$.
With Jobs leaving the company it's really hurting the longer term "growth" and this is really just what investor/speculator looking for. I don't think it's worth to hold aapl anymore.

EUR/USD spread.

The spread of EUR/USD has been widen, it was 0.9 the most time last year, but it's 1.5 to 1.2 since holiday started, now it's still at 1.2 the best.

Is this everyone else seen out there? I'm using OANDA.

2011-01-03

Today I TILT, it shouldn't be difficult to deal, instead of stop trading this kind of pattern, I need to still buying on this kind of market condition but not too aggressive when 1 minute chart is trending down. Basically there are 2 trades I have, buying on the pull back of EMA62, buying on previous support when it choppy, on the 2nd one, need to wait for confirmation before entering the trade.

System Development

Overview: I want to develop a trading system that can at least get me consistent result monthly, I can have losing days or weeks, not for month. This system can be automated or not, only depends on how it's implemented, cause if I put more technical factor and even fundamental factor in there, automation will be impossible.

Goal:

1. Consistency


2. reviewable, measurable

Details:

1. First I should be able to identify what day it is, is it trendy or ranging, that will help with the bigger picture, then depends on trendy or not, I can decide if I want to follow the trend or fade it with support/resist.


2. Following the trend: I can do resist breakout trade, after the breakout, buy the dip to ema62 on 5 or 10 seconds chart.


3. Range and fade trend: Short at the resist or after the breakout, if the price drop back to resist, short it and use the breakout price as stop.


4. In order to trace the trade and improve the system and make sure it's consistent, we need to have a google doc spreadsheet, it should include date/hour of the trade, Reward:Risk, result, Trendy/Range, Long/Short, 1d-1h-15-5, News, Comment. At the end of the week, should be able to review see if 1-1-15-5 help or not. The sheet shouldn't have P/L, it should only have if I follow the plan and if it worked or not. P/L should be tuned only after I can follow the plan.

So far, these 2 should be my best setup. I will run more test on both of them see how the 1day-1hour-15m-5m ema62 will affect the trend decision. The trending days would be easier to trade as more players will be involved and that means more volume and smaller spread, when last 2 weeks of the year, spread is high as 1.4 pips as normally it was 0.9.

Problems: There are problem with the system as

1. my target is 10 to 15 pips and stop is 10 pips, my spread is 0.9 meaning I give about 20% of profit as spread for round trade.

2010-12-01

1: What’s the overall market condition? recovering for risk appiti, ES is up 16, and EUR/USD up to 1.3106 from 1.30 level. Market is speculating that EU will extend it’s rescue program.
1d d 3h d 1h f 15m u 5m u? 1.3150 is the 50% retracement of the down side move from nov28th, it’s more likely to act as a resist. there is an up trending ema62 on 5 minute chart, support is at 1.3095, that’s where my stop it, if I’m stopped out, I will wait for 5 minutes see if it’s a clean breakout or test and jump back in. current risk is about 10$
What’s the news behind the move? Is it trendy? up trend. Is there news at 7:00 or so? ISM

2: What will be the trade? long dip at 1.3100 level, because of the support of ema62 on 5 min chart. What’s the risk? 20$
What-if it worked? take 10$ first and run the rest.
What-if it didn’t work? take 5 minute break and reenter.
The trade worked pretty OK, I entered 2x and take 1x at 10, the other stopped out BE. then I entered 2x again, 1x filled, the other missed 1 pip. Then I took at 10. Overall +20 now. won’t have more trade as ISM is 10 minutes away, spread will kill me.

At 7:20 I entered some stupid trade which will drag down my account, I’m currently all in for it. stop at 1.3060… Stupid…

2010-11-28

1: What happened today?
It's the holiday weekend, and lots of shopping going on, however, the stores are not giving as much discount as last year so we as consumer didn't shop as much as well. We will wait and see what's happening next in Xmas. Don't get me wrong, I did shop. I got a Kindle for my wife and a nice BB rain coat, but she didn't like it so we returned it.
What's the key resist and support?
Resist is 1.3445 level support is 1.3180 level. There wasn't much news over the weekend, still Europe (Irish/Span/Portigue) will still be the focus as well as north Korea.
What's the trend? Any news?

2010-11-18

Irish taking the aid, eur moves higher, from yesterday, it's up over 100 pips, even though overnight is just 30 pips, market expecting the move from yesterday.

1: daily is flat 3hourly down hourly up 15minute up 5 down, high as 1.3670 support 1.3620 and 1.3580
2: News to come is: 7:00 philly
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? up trend, Irish the driver and job number is not bad as well

4: What do you think the market will do today? moving up.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying the dip
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20

2010-11-17

There was nothing big happen overnigth, eur/usd stays with 1.3520 and 1.3460, range trade with no direction on either side, it's now at 1.3507 as I type.
ES is up 2, which consider unchanged after yesterday's 20 points drop.

1: daily is flat 3hourly down hourly down 15minute flat 5 flat
2: News to come is:no
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? no trend, range trade.

4: What do you think the market will do today? see what happen at either side of range. can be faster move after range break.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? range trade either side.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-11-16

nothing much changed over night, pair sitll bearish, bounce between 1.3580 and 1.3640.

1: daily is flat 3hourly down hourly down 15minute flat 5 flat
2: News to come is:6:00 TIC 6:15 cap 7:00 NAHB
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy?range day

4: What do you think the market will do today?down side.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? short pop
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

weekly review

Monday:
Sunday night was doing alright, buying low and selling high on range trade. made my points.

Monday morning wasn't right, son was waking up 4 and 6, I was late to the screen and saw we goes up, so jump in after a pretty fast pull back with thinking of not to trade the pull back and 3 red bar on 1 minute for 20 pips.. traded anyway with TILT, which risked about 200 pips (with bigger size position) and end up with probably 20 in return... crap, this was exactly the way how I blow off my account last time and I still don't learn.

Monday night was ok, buying the pull back after a breakout. made my points.

Tuesday morning, market dropped another 100 pips, but is out side of my trading time zone, so no worry, I was taking profit too early in general as the market is choppy, could go bigger size and longer hold if I trade after the breakout. Also Oanda is lagging IB little bit.

Wednesday morning, the pair was choppy but moving up, 1.3525 was previous resist, and it was broken, I was able to trade with the trend, but need to buy on the dip of ema62... I was doing ok because of trading with the trend, there were just not much mistake you can make..

Thursday morning, the news was good for SPY but also good for USD, I should have been short, but long instead, painful trading with broken rules to get to BE. I also longed GM which distract me somewhat. Shouldn't trade before the news, first order was right before 7:00. Also the relationship between e/u and SPY is broken today.

TILT on Thursday night, the pair break above 1.3670 and I keep shorting, lost about 2 weeks gain... and also it was too late at night so didn't get up to trade Friday morning... DAMN, I was just learned 2 important points:
1: get up 15 minutes early.
2: prepare the work from previous night.

2010-11-15

TILT today, keep buying at the dip, what if I could short at the pop.

2010-11-14.

Range trade for today.


My view is still down trend, but it doesn't stop me for buying the pair to get 10 pips.

SPY

I had closed my longer term position in SDS, it wasn't that I think the market will go up, actually I think the market will go down more from here 1200 level, to test 1150 and then backup, the problem is SDS is for intraday trade and not meant to be holding longer term. I'm losing 5 to 10% just because of this. As you can see, we are at 25 to 26 level, but we are suppose to at 28 level...

Anyway, I'm out for now, lesson learned.

2010-11-11

CSCO down 10% that drags down NQ 20 points with no suprise. ES is back to 1.3680 level previous support and bounce to 1.37. Which I think it's still bearish but be aware of double dip bottom pattern.

Lots of bank close today no trading and there is no TR I think today as US holiday, so the volume SHOULD be light but with CSCO who knows.

I'm keeping an eye on 1.3680 and 1.3740.

2010-11-10

Today is an interesting day, it reverse in the middle of the trading session, I would lose everything including my underware if I keep on one direction only.
The market was really bearish on Monday and Tuesday, today it was more bearish to begin with and then turned in the middle, I got some short, but nothing flys. It's OK, I was only aiming for 10 to 20 pips anyway, so this saved my ass.

As of the short week, there won't be much trading activities tomorrow and Friday, lets' summarize what happened to me in trading this week.

Monday was a good day, It was bearish on Sunday night and carry over to Monday morning, I was able to short and short, but I didn't let the winner run or follow the market, I was hitting my goal for the day then left. Which means I left more coins on the table.

Tuesday was confusing, which it popped back and I had no idea where to go, so I shorted gold which is at high and got stopped out before it reaching my target. This was stupid.

Wednesday was down and down and reversal all the way back up, I was able to capture some short, see, if I continue to short like what I wished on Tuesday, I would have lose everything again. So it's really hard to tell.

Thursday was a great down market, it dropped from 1.3720 to 1.3660 in my trading hour, but I was expecting a lighter market as US BANK and treatury closed, however, CSCO miss in earning report drag down the entire market which is perfect for short, this IS the time to go all-in. I was pretty protective and only traded 2/3 size... damn it. And I wasn't able to let the winner run, well, it run slower as it IS a holiday. I guess the trading error I have is still the effect from Wednesday.


This is the good datapoint and goal of this blog, to keep track of different days of market movement and my own response to the market.

See you next week.

2010-11-09

BTW: I short gold at 1421/1420, stop 1424, target 1413/1414.

1: daily is up 3hourly down hourly down 15minute up 5 up
2: News to come is:
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy?

4: What do you think the market will do today?

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)
Today is a nice day for the market EUR leading the way of dropping and Yahoo headline is EUR concern drops the stock. I guess after all the news (FOMC NFP) out of the door, now traders are focusing on EUR's debt problem. Gold made an all time hight and fall back to 1390 level. EUR/USD dropped 1.3770 level after testing 1.3960.
I don't have a specific view of where the market will go from here, although I am happy it dropped as I have some longer term position on long EUO and long SDS

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner?
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/
have no idea of where the market is going, ES is also choppy at +3 to -3. Market is tired after last week's big move.

The gold trade was stopped out right at the top, crap. Shorting gold was a mistake as well, as it's at all time hight, I would go long if it's EUR/USD.

The pop today is exactly on 1 hour chart, and then EUR/USD just give the ground for long, keep falling until 1.3750 level..

2010-11-08

It's Monday and it's Daylight Saving time change, trading is a little strange today.


1: daily is up 3hourly down hourly down 15minute down 5 down flat
2: News to come is: N/A
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? down trend move as EU debt concerns more for Irish.

4: What do you think the market will do today? down trending move, see if 1.3900 can be support

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? short the top.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3



After all, I feel I traded too early, I was going to waiting until US market open at 6:30, but when I see the price movement, I lose my patient. Will see.

Trading platform

I am thinking of changing to linux or mac for trading, the PC is good but windows is too slow and unstable.

I'm using Amibroker, which don't have any other version but windows. This is fine as I can have a VM for it.

will do more research need to make sure IB and Oanda work as well.

2010-11-07

It was a pretty silent Aisan session, but all the sedon, EUR/USD is dropping like a rock, I was able to short with the trend.

The drop was pretty big, 30 pips in 20 seconds..

Here is the chart.

FOMC

I'm just trying to get some common sense, FED spend 1.25 TB last year within 12 month to by MBS, and now when it's over, they use the same 1.25 to buy TR.
And this past week, they announce they will use anoter 100B a month for the next 6 month to buy TR, this means from now (Nov 2010) to next 6 month (May 2011), we will have 200B into US TR monthly.
With counting of 20 days (business days) per month, we have 10B perday money printed from thin air by FED.

Just to give a common sense, S (Sprint) AA (Alcoa) are at about 10 to 13 B market cap. So we are creating a Sprint or Alcoa EVERY BUSINESS DAY! And Alcoa have 60K employee, that means we can support 1.2 Million people work every month!

That means we can get 7.2 Mil people work after 6 month if we don't use the money to buy US TR but directly invest in the company!


Update:
OK, after reading more on the news, I was wrong, it's total of 110B per month, including 75B QE II and 30B QE I.

weekly view.

It was a eventful week, we had vote on Tuesday and FOMC on Wed, then NFP on Friday. overall market up nicely. My short SPY position almost get stopped out, I probably will give another 1 or 2 % before I throw towel at it.

As for FX side, this week wasn't bad, I was down 10% last week, and made all back this week, now I'm about 30 to 35% game on my small trading account, will keep it going for the rest of Novemeber and increase size on Dec.

As of view on the market, I think EUR/USD topped and USD/JPY bottomed. If you look at EUR/USD vs. SPY, EUR/USD shows lack of performance. With the issues coming out from EU, such as Irish and Greece, I don't see why they can go up to 1.50 level.
Gold is on fire to 1390 level, if you long gold, it's time to take some profit, you can always jump in next.
That's it for now, nice weekend.

A year ago.

A year ago, 11/6/09, I started this blog. Now I looked back, there were so many things changed.
1: account size
2: The way I trade.
3: The expectation I have about the market and about my own performance.

There are things not changed.

1: still using Oanda.
2: I'm still suck.

2010-11-04

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly up 15minute up 5 up
2: News to come is: 6:30 ECB speak after keep the rate.
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? FOMC to buy 600B, up trend.

4: What do you think the market will do today? depends on how it work at 1.4270, moving up.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buy the dip,short top, be careful about the fast move.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

Lula

BOJ again and again.

The Timeframe and chart I trade.

I'm starting more and more often to trade 10 seconds chart and 1 minute chart, 5 minute and 15 minutes is only for support/resist and 1hour-3hour-daily is mainly for bigger trend, in fact, the best case is use 1 minute for trend and 10 seconds for entry.

Following the trend is hard to get decent entry, but less risk as well.

As long as I control my average in size and think about what if scenario, I'm ok with trend following.

Current view of the market.

SPY is topped at 1190 level, as long as that stays, we are still having the potential of going back to 1040. I believe we will be choppy within this range to make our yearly gain at less than 10%.
Today ES was down 10+ points and closed within 5, bull is still around.

USD/JPY is temp bottoming at 80 level, I feel it's going to break below 80 to 79 or 78 and then the real bottom there and then we back to 90. Just like eur/usd couple month ago break to 1.19/8 and now is back to 1.40.

EUR/USD is topping, we have resist at 1.41 and we are due for the pullback to at least 1.36.
We will revisit this after next week's FOMC meeting.

2010-10-27

I was lazy these 3 days, I had a horrible day Sunday night, down 20%, which means all the profit last week was given back. So I have to adjust my mind and regroup, now it's about 10% back. And my mind is a lot clear.
This morning (actually both today and yesterday) I passed on some entry that I normally would take, and just because it's too risky or I don't have the time to manage it. They would worked out ok, but I didn't feel much regret, it's just a trade, it shouldn't make me or break me.
My plan was to close my longer term position on short EUR/USD and SPY in couple weeks (3 or 4), then focus only on day trading.
Early the year, around May and June, I was trading pretty well, and I thought I can manage day trading as well as swing trade, it turns out working for couple month, but now when I'm day trading, I keep on having the short bias. That makes me believe that my longer term position is somewhat affecting my short term view on the market.

I'm still debating if I should go with a system, like before, I traded breakout/moving average cross/support-resist, or go by reading the market and trade only base on price movement. I'm tend to go with the later, with "solid" money management of course.

Friday Thought

I was trading well this week, the smaller account (after blow out, now I trade with smaller size) gained over 20%, and I didn't feel much pressure during the week. There were probably one or 2 times I went all-in with this smaller account, and there is only one time I use the reserve.
If (and only if) base on this ratio, I would need 5 weeks to double this account and 25 weeks to get all the losses back for the current account. If I double up every 100%, it will be 11 weeks, that will put me in the end of Jan 2011.
This is a very aggressive goal and I'm sure I won't make it, so I will actually doubling my account with more funding from the reserver after 4 weeks of profitable trading so that my target ratio will be smaller, hopefully I can still get the same place by Jan 2011.
Trading is a long term goal, there should be any day / week to make me or break me.

Now let's talk about why I'm success this week, I mainly focus on how market moves, and because of the big loss last week, I wasn't really want to trade and I was watching here and there, but I clearly remember what the loss I have and what was the reason for it, it was fighting against the trend. This week, I still trade the same support/resistant type of setup, but I am more careful with the trend, and I can spot the difference of stronger trend vs. weaker trend on 10 or 5 seconds chart, with also the help of watching at price change real time. When price approaching a specific range, for example 50, the seller will try to stop it from going above 50, so you should see a slow down in the move, if the price movement continues, it can break and then because of the stop order, it accelerated, and most of the time in stronger trend, it stays above 50. So I was able to follow the stronger trend and fade the weaker trend. This is one reason of the success this week.

The other reason is, I am able to take some loss during the trade with out holding onto them for too long. Before, I was also able to take loss for individual trade, I cut them quickly because of stop-loss order, but I wasn't able to mentally take the loss for the day, I have to trade it back. This week, I did. I was able to identify the right timeframe and trading entry, when it's not working for me, I just stop, as I'm gaining any advantage on the market, why continue. This is always tomorrow that I can trade it back, no one day should make me or break me.

So 2 factors, 1: read the market and movement strong/weak. 2: risk management, always think of what if you loss this trade.

Bye for now, it's raining here in west coast, it sucks. It keeps my kids inside and they want to go out and play.

2010-10-22

2010-10-21

Timthy's letter hit WSJ again..

2010-10-19

1: daily is up 3hourly flat hourly down 15minute down 5 down
2: News to come is:
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? China hiked rate 25 bp, USD is higher across the board.we are trading at 1.3800 level for now. ES is down 12 at 1165 level right after market open.
Gold sold off 40$ at 13333

4: What do you think the market will do today? dropping

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying dip, selling pop
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

Oanda lagging.

To all the oanda user out there, if you are scalper. Today morning (PST) Oanada data is lagging for about 10 to 20 seconds, compare to my IB. What you see is not what you trade. Your price filled base on what is real.

update: even better now, I couldn't connect.

2010-10-15

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly up 15minute choppy 5 flat
2: News to come is: 6:55 Umich
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? not much overnight, Ben talked 5:20, we spike to 1.4160 in 2 minute and then retest it after 5:30 CPI Retail number. Now we pulled back at 1.4090 level.

4: What do you think the market will do today? we should go up, however, we have been up for a long extended time, so a turnaround is also expected. As well as it's a Friday. So take it easy.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buy 1.4050 or short 1.4160.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

VIX at 19.

Are we in a bull market? VIX is below 20. Let's see if 1250 of ES is the top.

2010-10-14

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly up 15minute up-flat 5 down
2: News to come is: N/A
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? it's breaking out 1.40 the previou resist last night and then rally as high as 1.4120. German exporter is selling (don't understand why) and not much stop under.

4: What do you think the market will do today? drop, as we run too fast, there need to be some pull back.

The pop from 1.4050 level this morning was very strong, that's why I didn't short on 10 sec or 1 min ema62, as the move is fast and none stop. I managed to get some short on previous high close to 84-90 level, stop at 92. Profit was too early, should be at 75 and 65. It's now trading at 64.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session) yes.

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner?
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-10-13

Market is up in general, eur/usd almost no change, it tested overnight high 1.40 but with BIS and China selling, now fail back to 1.3935. The post FOMC minute run as stabled.

ES is up 8 points and Asia/Euro stock market is up ingeneral. Intel beat and JP beat. Market in happy mood.

2010-10-12

SPY head and shoulder?

Are we in an inversed head and shoulder in SPY/ES daily chart? If so, we can go up to 1300 at least...


Hope not, I am shorting it now.

2010-10-11

It was a less movement day, as lots of banks are not trading today (holiday in North America).

China was selling EUR/USD at 1.4000 level and it pulls back to 1.3870 during the day.

This week is relatively short as not much news also.

JPY is leaving the dangrous zoon as it's trading at LEAST at 82.00 level.

Why USD/UPY drop from 86 (post BOJ intervention high) to this level? Because Japanese exporter are hedging!

current market view on Stock, FX, Gold.

It's 2010-10-08, Friday.

Stock market is a bit strange, as the job report isn't really big changer this morning, yes we are worse than exp, but not by big numbers, so it came backup as we are in a bullish uptrend (mid term) anyway. The move behind is, 1T$ QE is expected by Nov 2010 FOMC meeting. Now the Fed is really playing a better hand, market is pumped up, they have way too many choices, compare to last year, they have to QE otherwise it crash. This time the market is almost at post-crisis high and they have QE on hand. Ofcource they will review again before the meeting about all the data, market will be happy if they QE, Market won't be very unhappy if they don't, because they can always QE the next time. overall, I think we are in a bullish mood just because QE push down $ so much. It will bring in more money from overseas.

FX is bit crazy, EUR/USD break couple key resist, even the 61.8% Fib retracement. Really, I mean Europe is no better than US, in fact, PIIGS suck! But so what, ECB put 1T$ out of pocket and stand behind them. Now market is happy and here we go, euro just going higher and higher. I'm still bearish on Euro longer term, but that doesn't matter anyway. USD/JPY is at 15 years low, OK BOJ intervention didn't work that well, they throw 20B$ into water! Nowadays, you need a Trillion, not couple Billion to fool around. I remember early this year, when ECB first say they will have 60B$ to back Greece, EURO tanked! Until they throw 1T out, it dropped all the way to 1.19. JPY will have no difference, they need to spend couple T to save YEN, well, it's also tricky that they are in a such bad political relationship with China, who hope YEN goes higher and higher, and probably China is the single biggest buyer of JPY. There are couple reasons, political pressure, both are exported driven country. Chinese and Japanese won't get along together anyway. Also BOJ lower the rate from 0.1 to 0.1-0, what a stupid move, who cares about 0.1 anyway.

Gold is THE super star this week, and last week, and last month, and this year! It moved up from 1280 to 1360 (80$) in no time! Stock market up, people buy gold, stock down, people buy gold. I'm still think this move is largely because of the weak USD. Now you can see how powerful Fed is and how smart big Ben is, they move up stock market and weak USD without even a single penny, not YET. It's just a few words from GS, and they don't really NEED to do it in Nov's FOMC.

I know lots of people are happy with the market, me too, as I'm happy to see more and more people can work and feed their family. However, I still feel extreme uncertainty about this market.

Have a good weekend everyone. See you all next week.

2010-10-08

I just had a sizable lost, now regrouping and hope come back next week.

2010-10-05

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly up 15minute up 5up
2: News to come is: 7:00 ISM
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? BOJ lower rate to 0, where can they go next?

4: What do you think the market will do today? see how 1.3815 works, it's the top for now.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying the dip and short the top.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

Oanda eating my pip!

2010-10-04

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly flat after the pull back of 100 pips last night 15minute down 5 flat.
2: News to come is: 7:00 pending home sale and factory order.
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? China was selling last night, plus the market was down. BIS and Asia buying, low at 1.3667

4: What do you think the market will do today? major trend is still going up, but a pull back to 1.3560 is possible.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buy dip and sell top
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk? 20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-09-29

I didn't do pre-trade work today, I just get up late, and then watch it for 5 minutes, it's dropping from 1.3610 to 1.3595, so I thought of shorting it to be a good idea. Lucky I have my size right so that I can scale into it and cover most of it at price 90, it did bounce to 1.3603, that's the place I scaled in. And I have my stop at 17 I think.

After review the chart on 5 and 15 minutes, the real good trade I should do today is to buy at 85 to 90 level today. As the bull continue to work on it.


It tested 1.3647 level and failed back to 1.3620 level.

2010-09-28

It break out today, EUR/USD pulls back to test 1.3445 and then break 1.3515 line, went to 1.3580. I was TILT to long, lucky I can stay with profit.

2010-09-27

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly up 15 minute flat 5 flat
2: News to come is:
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? no trend, between 1.3425 and 1.3500, Moody downgrad irish bank push down, but later on it rally.

4: What do you think the market will do today? goin up, see if 1.3500. but mainly between the range

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying dip and selling top.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-09-24

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly up we bounced from ema62 nicely at 1.3300 level, 15 up minute 5 up
2: News to come is: 7:00 home data
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? BOJ intervent and EUR has some good news up 140 pips.

4: What do you think the market will do today? goin up, see if 1.3465will break.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session) yes, but not able to hold on the winner.

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying dip and selling top.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

BOJ again.

2010-09-23

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly up we bounced from ema62 nicely at 1.3300 level, 15 flat minute 5 up
2: News to come is: 7:00 home data
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? IRISH bond spread had lifetime high hit eur PIIGS worry again so we sold off from 1.3390 to 1.3309, and then weak USD data ( claim up to 465) triggers more possibility of QE so USD got sold. so gold is up usd is down.

4: What do you think the market will do today? goin up, see if 1.3380 will break.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying dip and selling top.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-09-22

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly up 15minute up 5 up
2: News to come is:7:00 home price.
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? FOMC yesterday, it's up, USD bearish accross the board.

4: What do you think the market will do today? up, depends on if 1.3440 get break. I tend to short it. and buy the pull back.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buy dip and short pop.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

2010-09-20

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly flat (are we head and shoulder here? ) 15minute down 5 down
2: News to come is: 7:00 NAHB housing index
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? It mainly moved higher last night, but the 4:45 started sell off was no reason yet, I searched couple sources but noone seems knows what happened, it pushed eur/usd from 1.3090 to 1.3030, we now trade 1.3045

4: What do you think the market will do today? dropping.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? sell the pop.
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

1: short at 46 stopped out at 52. next on 70
2: short at 65, stop set to 72, stop moved to 75, stop moved to 85, another short set at 79.

2010-09-17 -230 pips

1: daily is up 3hourly up hourly flat 15minute down 5 down, 1.3030 is ema62 of 1 hour chart.
2: News to come is: just came usd cpi, match exp.6:55 U Mich.exp 70.
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? no change overnight, it push up to 1.3160 then the middle east selling push it to 1.3040 level, now we bounce back to 1.3060 level. meanwhile, sds drop to 30.29, crap, my average price is 30.8. I will be out if it breaks 30 and stays under.

4: What do you think the market will do today? dropping.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? short pop
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3


1: keep leverage low is helping. I have 2 acount, they are pretty much same size, acc1 is 50:1 and acc2 is 1:1, which is just my reserve, so I trade feels like 50:1, but it's really just 25:1 overall size, this helped today other wize I will be all in at the middle of tilt anyway. BTW: this change happened after the JPY trade. Since I break even for the year, I decided to lower my risk.

2: today wasn't down that much, the break to 1.3040 level was pretty fast, but it didn't stay there, my strength is to short the pop in a down trend, it's different this time, it's bouncing from 40 and never stays below it. Then it form an up trend all the way to 96. There is no point short (or even trading) when I was -60 pip.

3: I traded UMich also, and have 50 pips in pocket for a moment but didn't take it. And I moved my stop to BE and it was taken out on the 2nd bounce of the down trend. As I always do, this should be changed, because I was down -200 + pips, doesn't mean I can get it back in 1 shot. I always try to do this, that's cause my TILT. If I stop trading for the day, my mind will get reset in couple days, and then I will be trading from my new account size as a base. I think lossing is not a good thing, but learn from losing is good. As I had tilted so many times, today I realize that what cause my tilt and how do I avoid more. Sometimes strick rule helped as well. Like today, I have a 300 pips max loss, that's why I stopped at 230. ANother note is, when I was down 100 pips, and I asked myself, do you want to risk another 100 pips or do you want to stop here today, sure I risk another one, this is not the right choice as I was doing it purely against the current trend, even the trend is about to change any moment, it's not the point of this trade, it's the point about this strategy and this mind TILT. And also the risk control, lossing 100 pips is not a big deal, but losing 300 pips is, how to loss 100 pips is also important as if I lost in multiple trade with right stragegy, it's much better than lost it in TILT.


BTW: I thought of ALL-IN at 1.3090 as well, it would be +500 pips now...

2010-09-16 + 30 pips

Not much analysis before the trade, EUR/USD goes up 100 pips overnight, I longed with it for the breakout and then short it when it's fading.

2010-09-15 +30 pips

Only a chart, I didn't do analysis beforehand, purely buy and luck.





This is another one:

2010-09-14 -1000 pips and + 1000 pips.

I had a rollercoster day today and yesterday.
First I lost about 1000 pips (yes, 1K pips) on buying eur/usd, I was stopped out at the low 1.2660. And missed a 300 pips run, I was trading with 10x + size.

Then I long usd/jpy, finally got lucky which BOJ act, I got all the lost back and break even for the YEAR!

This lucky trade (no mistake, it's purely lucky trade) deserve a drink. I'm having it now...






I was at the swimming class (for my son) when BOJ act, I was watching it jump up pip by pip and I said to myself, finally something happened. Too bad, I had already all-in, and there is no money left on the table to buy. Well, I had changed my leverage from 50:1 to 30:1 due to previous big lost, now I was hoping I didn't do that, oh well, I also hope I didn't have a stop at 1.2660 for EUR/USD... well, stop can only save you right?

2010-09-09

1: daily is flat 3hourly down, ema62 1.2765 hourly down, 1.2765 of yesterday's ema62 15minute up 5 up
2: News to come is: n/a
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? selling first to 1.2670 level, and then BIS and Asian buying to 1.2770 level, now drop back to 1.2745 level.

4: What do you think the market will do today? going up.

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? buying dip
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

Big tilt today, lost about 20% of my account, there are couple good things first:
1: didn't trade acount to 0.
2: didn't get margin call.
3: draw down 20%, better than last time (in May, 80%), it's totally different story when talking about recovery from 20% vs. 80% down.

Bad things now:
1: 20% down is a big mentally hit. I really mean BIG.
2: I just came back to almost (5 to 6%) BE for the year, this add on to the hit.
3: I made the same type of mistake vs. May's tilt.
4: I even lost on the same direction, long!
5: The sign was pretty clear this week, I tilt pretty much all the days.

2010-09-08 -10 pips

1: daily is flat 3hourly down hourly down 15minute down flat 5 flat
2: News to come is: N/A
3: What's the main event just happened that move the market? and is it trendy? SNB selling 1.2733 and BIS buying 1.2666, it's still down trending as now at 1.2690 level.

4: What do you think the market will do today? going down to test 1.2666 again

5: Were you right about the market? (After the trading session)

6: What's the trade? Is it related to the previous loser or winner? short the pop
Do you take half at 1R?
How many pips it risk?20

what's the daily limit and daily risk now? 60/20/3

I'm so lucky to be just out with -10 pips. well, if I hold my position until now, it will be +200 pips. Again I went short, which was planned. There are 2 issues I see:
1: while writing my plan, the pair went from 1.2690 to 1.2615 level pretty fast, that's already a sign of short term strength, I can wait for it to get over and short, but I shorted anyway, this was planned, so no big deal.
2: I wasn't into the right size, yes I traded with 0.66x size, but I added to it quickly, which lead to my later miss trade.
3: I didn't think of when and where should I add more position, I just went short and short again. That's the biggest problem. I tilt.

My biggest risk at a point was 200 pips.

My year to date was only -200 pips. and my goal for this month is to BE, and I'm getting there.

2010-09-07 +40 pips

I didn't do well today, I tilt twice.

I had a short order last night and it worked well. Then this morning I was late to the market, when most of the move is over (at least I thought it was over), then I started with little scalp long position, that turns into a almost margin call disaster. Luck it pulled back and I was able to get out with BE.

Then in the afternoon, I entered another long right before market close, that turned into a 100pip losser again, and I was lucky to get out with 40pips..


I will have more chart for today's trade, no gambling, it's not trade at all today.

2010-09-03 +50 pips

NFP today, I had a scalp.

My SDS position finally got stopped out at 32.8, now it's trading at 31.8, should have been stopped out at 33.5 level... TILT.






last trade, I promise.





Another note, my usd/jpy long position was stopped out at 84.45, which I entered at 83.80 level. I'm entering again at 84.32 with much smaller size to hold the long weekend.

Note: I closed it as I want to have a nice and clean long weekend.